China’s carbon emissions were flat in the third quarter as solar power generation soared and the use of electric cars continued to grow, a survey showed on Tuesday.
Emissions from the world’s biggest polluter have now been stable or falling for 18 months in a row, according to the analysis published by climate news specialist Carbon Brief.
“After the first three quarters of the year, China’s CO2 emissions in 2025 are now right in the balance between a small decline or increase depending on what happens in the last quarter,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, chief analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“A decline in the full-year total became much more likely after September, when emissions fell by about three percent year-on-year,” said Myllyvirta, also a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
The new analysis, which is based on official Chinese data, comes as the UN’s COP30 climate conference kicked off in Brazil on Monday.
“While an increase or decrease in emissions of one percent or less may not make a big difference in an objective sense, it has increased its symbolic significance,” Myllyvirta said.
“Chinese policymakers have left room for emissions to rise for several more years, leaving the timing of the peak open,” he added.
Emissions from the power sector, China’s dominant source of CO2, were flat in the third quarter despite strong electricity demand, Myllyvirta said.
Electricity generation from solar energy increased by 46 percent, while wind energy grew by 11 percent compared to the same period last year.
Emissions from transport fuels fell by five percent, while cement and steel production also fell.
Oil demand and emissions elsewhere rose 10 percent as production of plastics and other chemicals soared, the analysis showed.
In September, China announced its first-ever absolute targets for reducing warming gases.
Under the new plan, China will reduce economy-wide emissions by seven to 10 percent by 2035 from the year of the country’s peak emissions, likely 2025.
China had previously pledged to peak its CO2 production before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, without ever previously setting short-term numerical targets for overall emissions reductions.
