In a new weekly update for pv magazineSolcast, a DNV company, reports that early 2026 will bring mixed solar conditions globally, with strong prospects in eastern Australia and eastern China, but cloudier than normal prospects for much of Europe, Asia and parts of the US early in the year.
The first half of 2026 will bring a mixed outlook for solar globally, according to analysis from data scientists at Solcast. Seasonal forecasts from multiple weather agencies indicate a challenging start to 2026 for solar companies in Europe, but early signs of a sunny start to summer, with the opposite in the US with broad negative deviations forecast for most of the US in February, March and April after a strong January. Nearly all forecasts point to a first half of 2026 for Australia, including a particularly clear January for peak summer conditions. While most of Asia will experience cloudier than normal conditions, eastern China looks likely to benefit from clear conditions. ENSO variability adds further complexity, with neutral conditions expected at the start of the year, before a possible shift towards El Niño later in 2026.
Eastern Australia and much of China stand out as clear winners in the ensemble forecasts. Both regions are expected to enjoy sunnier than normal conditions for most of the first six months, providing a strong start for solar operators. In Australia, model consensus is unusually high, with almost all months trending brighter than average. The exception to this is April, when widespread cloud cover is expected to develop across the continent. Meanwhile, eastern China is expected to experience continued increased insolation, in stark contrast to the rest of Asia, where forecasts
suggest that irradiation is below average in the first half of the year. Some regions are forecast to remain at or above normal for some months, but otherwise most of East Asia – particularly Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and India – is expected to see a negative deviation of –1 to –5% each month through June.
Across America, conditions vary greatly by region and season. North America starts the year strong, especially in January, although the Pacific Northwest breaks the trend with cloudy skies. California is expected to avoid the heavier clouds forecast elsewhere while conditions remain relatively favorable. By mid-year, as we approach peak solar generation season, the southern United States and eastern Mexico are expected to outperform seasonal averages, with late spring and early summer contributing to the gains. This, plus the annual increase in capacity, ensures that every grid will see new solar records throughout the year. Central America and much of Argentina and eastern Brazil are also among the regions likely to see above-average insolation early in the year.
Europe faces a challenging start, with Eastern Europe and the Scandinavian countries expected to experience the largest deficits in the first months – up to 10% below average. However, sunnier weather is expected as spring progresses, allowing Western Europe, with the exception of areas near the Alps, to end the first half of the year on a positive note, especially as the days get longer in summer.
North Africa and parts of Eastern Europe share a less favorable outlook, with persistent cloud cover limiting insolation. Elsewhere, forecast confidence is lower, due to disagreement between models and the influence of evolving ENSO conditions. South America looks set for a cloudy month in the Amazon and northern Brazil before settling into neutral or slightly positive conditions for most of the continent.
Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols worldwide at a resolution of 1-2 km, using proprietary satellite data AI/ML algorithms. This data is used to drive irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate high-resolution irradiance, with a typical deviation of less than 2%, as well as cloud tracking predictions. This data is used by more than 350 companies that manage more than 300 GW of solar energy worldwide.
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