Silver prices hit a record high of $94.73/oz on January 19. Silver analyst Philip Newman explains pv magazine the metal could soon surpass $100/oz, increasing pressure on PV module manufacturers to reduce silver use.
The price of silver continues to rise, reaching an all-time high of $94.73 per ounce (oz) yesterday.
For comparison, the average silver price in 2024 was $28.27 per ounce.
“I think we could soon cross the $100 threshold,” said Philip Newman, director of British market research firm Metals Focus. pv magazine. “If the prices are this close, it seems very likely.”
Geopolitical factors, including rising tensions between Europe and the United States, are important drivers of the sharp upward trend, according to Newman.
“There is a lot of positive sentiment towards gold and silver,” he said. “Uncertainty is increasing due to Trump’s proposed tariffs and possible European retaliation, as well as developments in South America. In addition, the charges against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the continued move toward de-dollarization are also supporting precious metals.”
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According to Newman, silver prices are unlikely to retreat to levels seen in the 2022-2025 period, when the metal’s average price ranged between $21.70/oz and $28.50/oz. “Ultimately, we could see prices fall once the current liquidity crisis subsides and uncertainty and investment demand begin to weaken,” he said. “However, this will take time. It won’t happen overnight, and I don’t expect it to happen until 2026. When prices fall, they will likely settle at significantly higher levels than in previous cycles.”
Rising silver prices are putting pressure on the entire PV supply chain, with silver’s share of costs almost quadrupling in recent months. “We calculate that at a silver price of around $70/oz, silver would represent at least 18% to 20% of total solar panel costs,” says Newman. “As prices approach the $100 mark, this stock will definitely be higher.”
Part of the solar industry could therefore accelerate the transition from silver pastes to copper pastes to reduce production costs, Newman said. “I don’t think all manufacturers will switch to copper,” he said. “However, some are willing to accept lower efficiencies if it allows them to achieve significantly lower production costs. With silver prices above $90/oz, some manufacturers are willing to make that trade-off.”
According to Metals Focus, the average silver load in the PV industry fell by around 20% in 2024, and a further reduction of more than 15% could have been achieved last year.
In a recent interview with pv magazineHanwei Wu, editor-in-chief at OPIS, said solar panel manufacturers are struggling to raise prices despite higher production costs linked to rising silver prices.
“It is challenging, if not impossible, to pass on the entire cost increase to end users,” says Wu. “Solar manufacturers have been concerned about rising silver prices since 2022, but a key difference this time is the speed of the increase. Silver has been on a near-continuous bull run since April of last year and is up more than 180% over the past year.”
However, if silver prices rise above $100 and remain high, a silver-driven increase in PV module prices may become inevitable.
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