Analysis by energy consultancy Montel shows that Germany, France and the Netherlands all saw record levels of renewable curtailment last year, with solar build-outs in each market contributing to midday generation peaks and resulting price cannibalization.
Germany, France And The Netherlands According to an analysis by the energy advisory service, a total of 3.9 TWh of renewable energy was reduced last year Montel Analytics.
Montels European price-sensitive curtailment report includes commercial curtailment volumes in ten European markets. Germany, France and the Netherlands are responsible for more than 80% of the cuts in the ten countries tracked in the report, each setting new records for renewable energy cuts by 2025. The three countries also set new records for hours of negative day ahead prices last year, with Germany recording 539, France 509 and the Netherlands 584.
Germany curtailed 1,749.7 GWh of renewable energy in 2025, almost 25% more than in 2024 and above the record set in 2020. According to the Montel report, negative prices started to appear in Germany earlier this year, with solar peaks now starting in April and continuing until the end of September.
The report cites Germany’s solar boom, the timing of renewable generation relative to electricity demand, remaining inflexibility in the country’s fuel mix and limited short-term flexibility as reasons for recurring periods of market oversupply. “Commercial curtailment is therefore best understood as a structural outcome of the current phase of the energy transition, in which renewable capacity has expanded faster than the system’s ability to absorb and move that energy through demand growth, storage and flexibility,” Montel analysts say.
A similar trend is visible in France, Montel adds, where the country will curtail 1,429 GWh of renewable energy sources by 2025.
The report describes the commercial curtailment in France as a “rational market outcome” considering the country’s high solar penetration, inflexible nuclear baseload, slow demand growth and limited flexibility. The report goes on to warn that commercial curtailment is likely to remain a structural feature of the French energy market without faster electrification, more flexible demand and greater deployment of storage.
The Netherlands has curtailed 708.6 GWh of renewable energy sources by 2025. The Dutch curtailment is a market response to persistent oversupply, the report says, due to a current imbalance between the pace of renewable capacity growth and the evolution of demand flexibility options. “Although the electrification of heating, transport and industry is progressing, it is not yet sufficient to accommodate the rapid growth of solar production during peak hours,” Montel’s analysis adds.
In the other seven countries covered in Montel’s report, Finland curtailed 296.9 GWh of renewable energy last year, compared to 172.7 GWh in Switzerland, 92.6 GWh in Britain, 71.1 GWh in Poland, 58.2 GWh in Belgium, 53.8 GWh in Hungary and 34.9 GWh in Austria.
Looking ahead, Montel says that while it is difficult to say whether there will be more price cuts and negative prices in 2026, a trend towards more market-based subsidy regimes, such as Contracts for Difference (CfD) structures, is expected. CfD-like support schemes are increasingly fitting the European energy system, according to Montel’s analysis. He explains that two-way CfDs can suspend support during negative price hours, reducing disruptions, limiting overproduction and integrating clean capacities into the market without fragmentation.
The report also explains that as Germany is the most mature market in dealing with negative prices and commercial curtailments, its bidding behavior in the day-ahead market could be an indication of where other markets might move, before adding that it is “not inconceivable that Germany will be the benchmark for balancing risks.”
“We see that the German market is the most liquid intraday market on the continent, with many optimizers and direct marketers engaged in trading renewable assets,” Montel analysts wrote. “This is another indication that other markets will tend towards German behavior rather than the other way around.”
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