In a perspective article in Joule, a group of US researchers described the technological and supply chain efforts needed to reach a global annual cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar PV capacity of 100 GW by 2030.
A group of academic, industrial, and institutional researchers participating in the U.S. Department of Energy Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium, have published a perspective article in Joule on the prospect of expanding production of cadmium telluride solar PV products globally to an annual capacity of 100 GW by 2030.
“While cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar photovoltaics are already doing very well in the market, our article shows that there is still a lot of room for CdTe to grow. Our work highlights the path for future performance improvements and market expansion,” co-corresponding author of the perspective article, Michael Heben, said pv magazine.
The analysis, presented in “Roadmap to 100 GWDC: Scientific and supply chain challenges for CdTe photovoltaics,” assessed supply chains and technological developments, taking into account policy influences and the recent growth rate of CdTe production capacity to inform the outlook.
It noted that CdTe deployment “has grown disproportionately in the U.S. and the U.S. utility market due to a combination of policy and technological factors.”
“The cost and performance of CdTe modules have continued to improve thanks to advances in research, development and manufacturing,” the report said.
Furthermore, total global CdTe PV production capacity has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% since 2017. A future projection by the researchers indicated that “100 GWdirect current/year should be possible in 2030.”
The study further found that the supply of tellurium (Te), a byproduct of mining, is not expected to limit the expansion of CdTe production, noting that the US module manufacturer First solar energy had already announced capacity expansions for 2026 that exceed previously forecast limits by 25%.
“There have been limited historical incentives to conquer Te, and it is a common misconception that because so little is produced today that this is a fundamental limit,” co-corresponding author Matthew Reese told me. pv magazine. “There are also device improvements that can be made to dramatically increase the production scale of CdTe, providing a longer runway as Te production is scaled up.”
Regarding the ability to remain competitive with conventional silicon in the utility segment, the study highlighted its affordability, reliability, predictability and outperformance in hot and humid climates, in addition to the high potential of device research and development.
“Future improvements in efficiency in the areas we emphasize will further strengthen CdTe’s competitiveness,” Heben said, citing research to increase module energy conversion efficiency, reduce Te intensity and improve bifaciality.
It also highlighted CdTe’s production process, which “leverages domestic supply chains,” making it “less sensitive to import restrictions while supporting national energy security.”
Study participants were from the University of Toledo, the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Laboratory of the Rockies, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Colorado State University, Sivananthan Labs and First Solar.
Looking ahead, basic and applied research is being conducted to improve the performance of manufacturable CdTe devices and modules under the umbrella of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium.
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