Brazil has opened consultations on its PDE 2035 energy plan, which expects 107 GW of solar power by 2035 – including 78 GW of distributed generation – with battery storage of 7 GW, or 2% of the energy mix.
Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy has opened public consultations on the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2035 and the National Energy Plan (PNE) 2055, Brazil’s main long-term energy planning tools developed by Energy Research Company (EPE).
Under the baseline scenario outlined in PDE 2035, installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Brazil is expected to reach 107 GW in 2035, up from 60 GW in December 2025. Of that total, utility-scale solar would increase from 20 GW to 29 GW, while distributed generation would increase from 40 GW to 78 GW over the decade.
At 107 GW, solar would become Brazil’s second largest source of electricity, accounting for almost 30% of installed capacity and close to hydropower, which is expected to reach 113 GW, or 32% of the mix.
Growth in the early years of the plan is concentrated in micro and mini distributed generation (MMGD), which is expected to reach 78 GW by 2035 alone. In contrast, the expansion of centralized solar power generation is expected to face economic and operational constraints during periods of surplus in the National Interconnected System (SIN), driven by the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources.
The plan notes that solar energy output peaks during the day, while net demand is typically highest at night. This mismatch contributes to curtailment risks and downward pressure on short-term market prices. In the reference scenario, centralized solar energy is assumed to make no contribution during periods of high night-time demand.
The consultation paper states that integrating storage with solar power plants will be key to improving competitiveness, allowing production to shift to periods of higher system demands and potentially higher prices.
Brazil’s total installed capacity is expected to grow from 249 GW in 2025 to 359 GW in 2035, an increase of 110 GW. Over the same period, the share of hydropower in installed capacity is expected to decrease from 47% to 35%, for both large and small hydropower plants.
The share of centralized solar and wind energy remains largely stable, while MMGD increases by six percentage points to 22% of installed capacity in 2035. Thermal generation is expected to increase from 12% to 14%.
Energy storage is expected to account for 2% of SIN’s installed capacity by 2035, while demand response could contribute up to 1%. Overall, renewables are expected to remain dominant, although their share of installed capacity is expected to decline slightly from 94% in 2025 to 88% in 2035 in the base case.
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