EirGrid has warned of a “potentially challenging situation” for the country’s electricity system between 2026 and 2028, as rising demand threatens to exceed available generation capacity.
In its latest All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment, the operator analyzed the balance between electricity supply and demand in Ireland over the next ten years.
The report shows that between 2026 and 2028, both basic and secure assessments will fall outside Ireland’s three-hour reliability standard, indicating that additional capacity will be needed to maintain the adequacy of the system.
Conditions improve towards the end of the decade. From 2029, the basic assessment will return within the Reliability Standard, which means that the system must have sufficient capacity to function under normal conditions. The safe rating, which models more challenging operating conditions, remains outside the norm throughout the forecast period. In this scenario, approximately 200 MW of additional capacity will be required, increasing to more than 400 MW in 2034.
Emergency measures to support security of supply
The report also highlights temporary interventions implemented under the Security of Supply program led by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU).
Under this programme, the CRU commissioned EirGrid to procure temporary emergency generation (TEG) and retain existing units (REU) at the Moneypoint power station.
These units act as out-of-market measures that can provide crucial backup generation if there is a shortage of market-based capacity or if the electricity system goes into alarm.
Although the TEG and Moneypoint REU units are not included in the report’s modeling scenarios due to their temporary nature, EirGrid noted that they have been critical in improving the adequacy position and will remain important during the identified potentially challenging years.
Demand is expected to increase due to electrification
Looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, the report’s middle scenario assumes continued growth in electricity demand, followed by slower but sustained growth through 2035.
Rising consumption is expected to be driven by electrification trends in line with government policy, including the adoption of electric heat pumps for heating and electric vehicles in the transport sector as Ireland moves away from fossil fuels.
Changing generation mix and reliability standard
At the same time, the country’s electricity supply will evolve significantly as Ireland transitions to a renewables-based energy system.
EirGrid expects that new generation capacity will be supplied through capacity auctions in the Internal Electricity Market (SEM), while additional renewable capacity will come through the Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS) and Offshore RESS auctions.
Marc Senouci, head of Power System Insights and research design authority at EirGrid, said the electricity sector must adapt to changing patterns of supply and demand.
“As society consumes electricity in different ways and we transition to a renewable energy-based transmission system, the electricity industry will need to find new ways to meet the growing demand for energy,” Senouci said.
“As the generation supply and demand landscape changes, and as demand for electricity increases, government policy will help guide the transition, but a coordinated effort will be needed to manage both the volume and type of new capacity.”
He added that it is crucial that the capacity market efficiently delivers new capacity to support the energy transition.
According to data released by EirGrid in January 2026, this is the second consecutive monthly record. Renewables accounted for 43.8% of electricity generation on the Irish grid that month, with wind energy accounting for 38.5% – almost four percentage points more than in November – while solar energy contributed 0.5%.
Electricity adequacy is expressed using Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) – the number of hours per year during which electricity production is not expected to meet demand. The Irish reliability standard is set at three hours LOLE.
EirGrid emphasized that the LOLE measurement does not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will experience disruptions, but rather indicates the likelihood that supply will not fully meet demand under certain circumstances.
