Ember’s latest analysis shows that there are major bottlenecks in transmission and distribution networks across Europe, threatening the viability of both future utilities and small-scale residential solar in the most affected countries.
There is a shortfall of around 120 GW between the planned expansion of renewable energy sources and available network capacity in most EU member states, according to a new report from energy analysts Ember.
The “Crossed wires: Network capacity could block the EU’s energy securityAccording to the report, more than one in two EU countries face bottlenecks at the transmission level where large-scale solar and wind projects are connected.
The greatest constraints are in Austria, Bulgaria, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Slovakia, where available network capacity can accommodate less than 10% of the planned renewable energy sources before the end of this decade.
Image: Ember
Ember’s report also warns that the problem across the EU is likely even worse than reported, as some of the bloc’s most mature renewable energy markets, such as Germany and Italy, do not publish network capacity data.
“This is not a long-term risk that can deliver long-term solutions. Comparing available network capacity with longer-term renewable energy deployment expectations for 2028, the network capacity squeeze is likely to become apparent soon,” the report said. “This also applies to countries outside the Netherlands, which are already experiencing consequences. Nine of the seventeen reporting countries are expected to face a shortage of network capacity by 2028.”
The problem doesn’t just affect larger utility-scale solar projects. Ember’s report adds that limited capacity in the European distribution network threatens to delay the rollout of rooftop solar.
Findings from thirteen countries publishing grid capacity data for distribution networks show that in six countries there is insufficient space for the expected small-scale solar growth, putting at least 16 GW of planned rooftop solar at risk.
Ember says this could affect up to 1.5 million households, with the risk greatest in Slovenia and Denmark, where insufficient network capacity could affect 32% and 19% of all households respectively.
Image: Ember
Electricity grid bottlenecks across Europe are also being exacerbated by huge queues for connections in some countries, meaning new applicants are likely to face major delays. According to the Ember report, in ten EU countries – Finland, Italy, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Austria, Poland, Belgium and Lithuania – almost 700 GW of renewable energy is already waiting to be connected to the electricity grid.
The report explains that the underlying problem is pace, with electricity grid developments not keeping pace with the speed of the energy transition and networks unprepared for renewed industrial investment.
Elisabeth Cremona, senior energy analyst at Ember and author of the report, said pv magazine that two parallel actions are needed.
“First, implementing rapidly deployable solutions that can quickly unlock capacity on the existing electricity grid, allowing new producers and consumers to connect before new wires are laid. As Europe faces a shock to fossil fuel prices for the second time in four years, it is crucial to ensure that households looking to protect themselves from volatile prices by installing rooftop solar do not face the barrier of limited network capacity.”
“Second, we need to increase investment in the electricity grid – both by expanding the physical network and upgrading existing equipment – to truly tackle this problem.”
Recommendations highlighted in the report include non-wireless solutions such as grid-enhancing technologies and non-fixed connection agreements, which the International Energy Agency has previously estimated could unlock up to 185 GW of capacity across Europe. Ember’s analysis adds that national regulators in fifteen EU member states had already introduced enabling frameworks for non-permanent agreements by November last year.
Cremona told it too pv magazine that it falls squarely on national actors, and not the EU, to solve the problems outlined in the report.
“Network investments are an issue at national level. Therefore, action to address capacity constraints due to historically insufficient investment must come from national grid operators and regulators, with the support of local policymakers. This is good news because it means that recovery measures can be implemented now, without waiting for legislation from Brussels.”
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