The Martin Lake Power Plant in Tatum, Texas, United States
Image: Larry D. Moore, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Data from the latest Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook indicates a structural shift within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas market. Solar power generation is expected to reach 78,000 GWh by 2026, exceeding the projected 60,000 GWh for coal.
Sun and wind combined reaches recently hit a record 17% of total U.S. energy generation, and that momentum is accelerating. By the end of 2026, solar power alone is expected to account for 12% of Texas’ total electricity supply, while coal’s share will shrink to 13%.
The increase in generation is supported by a significant increase in physical infrastructure, with Texas set to host approximately 40% of all new U.S. solar capacity by 2026.
Developers plan to do that install 14 GW of new utility-scale solar in Texas as part of a broader 86 GW capacity increase nationwide. One of these projects is the 837 MW Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS facility, which is expected to be the largest single PV installation to come online nationwide this year.
Texas remains a central driver of the domestic energy transition, accounting for 12.9 GW or 53% of the 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage planned for the U.S. grid by 2026. This battery wave is critical to stabilizing the grid as renewables penetration increases. Total battery capacity in the US is now expected to reach 67 GW by early 2027, a significant increase from the 15 GW added in 2025.
The national outlook mirrors the shift in Texas, with solar and wind combined expected to make up more than 20% of the total U.S. electricity generation mix by early 2027. Outside of the solar sector, wind energy additions are expected to double to 11.8 GW, supported by the completion of major offshore projects such as the 800 MW Vineyard Wind 1. While solar and storage dominate the 2026 pipeline, small-scale solar is also expected to contribute 8 GW of new capacity, further diversifying the decentralized grid.
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