The UK solar market remains busy, but for very different reasons than this time last year.
Of notifications about grid connections were issued four months ago nowand final dates are finally given to developers, buildouts can finally take place, and developers can connect projects that were mechanically completed up to twelve months ago.
More than 4GWp is currently being built in the country. Some developers have continued with ‘business as usual’ – a risk as the first dates for distribution projects have yet to emerge and there are a number of projects receiving notifications after 2030.
Solar Media Market Research collected data on notifications, which projects have a Gate 2 Phase 1 or Phase 2 connection date, and what was pushed back purely due to the lack of infrastructure.
Let’s look at the three main distribution network operators (DNOs): National Grid (NGED), UK Power Networks (UKPN) and Northern Powergrid (NPG). 6,546 MW, 3,084.6 MW and 2,129.7 MW of Gate 2 Phase 1 tenders were distributed respectively.
National Grid network connection queue
With 4.5 GW operational and 6.5 GW allocated to phase 1, the network is 21% below the original target of 13.9 GW set by the National Energy System Operator (NESO) in 2024. The cutoff for Gate 2 Phase 1 offers appears to be around 500 in the queue, with notable projects such as Washdyke Solar Farm and Coven Solar Farm on the verge.
The difficulty arises because network constraints and reinforcement timelines play a large role in determining which projects receive Phase 1 bids. In the NGED region, there are several projects that were supposed to have Clause 1 protection and received Phase 2 bids even though they had a non-fixed date of 2027/28. This makes the assumptions much more complex and explains some of the reasons for the delays in the network reform process.
Some grid delivery points (GSPs) were much busier than others. Iron Acton, Port Ham and Bicker Fen were at the top when it came to grid connection dates before 2031. Interestingly, none of these are at the top when it comes to pipeline, with Ratcliffe-on-Soar topping the charts with 500MW planned.
Queue for UK power networks
UKPN is perhaps the most complex DNO of them all. Of the 3.1 GW of Phase 1 offerings, Solar Media Market Research discovered 2.6 GW, and unsurprisingly two-thirds of this came from just nine GSPs. The lack of infrastructure in this region has been widely publicized and with the high CP30 target of 8.1 GW, the operational capacity of 2.6 GW and the 3.1 GW of phase 1, the network is almost 30% short.
Once again technical limits played a major role in this, even more than NGED. Phase 2 offers went to 630 MW, with non-firm dates of 2027/28. Almost half of Rayleigh’s capacity falls into this category, while the GSP with the country’s largest pipeline, Bramford, at 150 MW, suffered the same fate.
In total, approximately 700 MW has been pushed back by the Transmission Operator (TO), but these projects still hope to connect before 2030.
UKPN was seen as a highly attractive region four to five years ago, with some developers having upwards of a dozen sites currently under planning or further development there. Some have now sold some of these sites: TotalEnergies’ purchase of Low Carbon included five projects in the area. Other developers have 5-6 sites with a total capacity of more than 150 MW that have only received Phase 2 bids.
Northern Powergrid’s queue
While Northern Powergrid had the pipeline to meet targets, 4.9 GW is only planned; 2.1 GW received Phase 1 bids, and with approximately 600 MW operational in addition, we are once again far from the original target of 4.4 GW.
Unlike NGED, instead of the overall queue position, we have a queue position for each GSP.
Creyke Beck had a huge Gate 2 capacity connected to it, but much of this was in Phase 2, which mainly consisted of two major projects. Norton and Knaresborough had two of the largest Phase 1 pipelines, with Knaresborough at over 200 MW.
The region is slightly less attractive than UKPN, and this is reflected in the developers and their pipeline. One developer has six locations of approximately 200 MW, almost half of which have a Phase 1 notification.
Figure 1: DNOs across England are under-delivering on Phase 1 offers, with transmission having to hold up excess capacity. While Northern Powergrid and UK Power Networks clearly had the pipeline, the phase 1 offers did not reflect this. Source: Solar Media Market Research.
Figure 1 shows projects that are in planning or further along, excluding anything still in the scoping or pre-consultation phase (some of which have received Phase 1 bids). What is striking is that the pipeline for UKPN and NPG is there, but because the infrastructure is not in place, the projects with non-firm dates in 2027/28 were postponed to 2032, with 1GW already identified.
With all but one DNO reaching the target, transmission projects were allocated the spare capacity, but these bring their own complexity and three of the short-term projects have already been postponed by two years.
Mergers and acquisitions in the British solar market
More than forty solar parks before construction changed hands in 2025 and the first two months of 2026. The unprecedented activity is not expected to slow down anytime soon.
Downing has now bought five locations since Decemberindicating that the trades are dependent on expected gate offers. Another notable transaction was Uniper’s acquisition of several projects from Innova that went ahead 3 weeks ago.
Other developers took the plunge before the notifications were distributed and could pay the price with some receiving Phase 2 offers; it’s unclear if that was expected, or if the lack of acceleration came as a surprise.
For more information about projects that have received Gate 2 offers or to understand where the data comes from, please contact [email protected].
