Solar continues to dominate new capacity of electricity generation that has been added to the grid in the United States, which represents More than 50% of the capacity in the field of electricity generation on Utility scale Additions expected in 2025, according to the EIA.
Since solar energy plays a crucial role in supplying American electricity, assessing risks for developing projects and operational assets is essential to inform accurate insurance insurance and to promote the resilience of these assets.
An annual report of Risk Assurance Firm KWH Analytics investigated the top risks that are today confronted with American solar projects and made recommendations for Reducing and accurately modeling these risks.
“Because renewable energy becomes the backbone of the electric grid, ensures that the resilience of the system is no longer optional – it is necessary,” said Jason Kaminsky, Chief Executive Officer at KWH Analytics. “Keeping these assets operational requires unprecedented cooperation between assets owners, operators, financiers, insurers, brokers and manufacturers.”
Extreme weather
Greeting Risk remains the top issue with which solar projects are confronted. This year, although only 6% of the damage and loss events are related to Hagel, the events represented 73% of the total financial losses of weather conditions, according to KWH Analytics.
The report warned that hail risk is something to evaluate, even in regions that are usually not considered a hail. North Carolina, usually not as a risky region for Hagel, represented 19% of the total losses made.
Research by Central Michigan University showed that almost all (99.3%) of the sun factories in the US have at least 10% chance to have a 2 -centimeter hail near the project every year. For a period of 25 years, 100% of the large-scale projects have a risk of 2-inch Hagel, according to the researchers.
KWH Analytics recommends using wind and Hail Stow Tracker technology, as well as selecting solar modules with thicker, tempered glass. For systems with a fixed axis, the company recommends carrying torque audits and using deep pile foundations to guarantee secure systems under high wind.
Research by VDE Americas shows that Greeting mitigation work. While the Fighting Jays Solar Project made the headlines in Texas because they have had enormous widespread damage as a result of hail the size of a golf ball, three locations in the region that saved proactive hail successfully passed the storm of 2024.
The risk of hail becomes intensive as the solar module formats increase, glass becomes thinner and changes frame and back -sketch configurations. Glass fracture increasesAnd research by Kiwa Pi Berlin discovered that glass errors up to 10% of the identified system malfunctions contribute, which emphasizes the need to purchase resilient modules.
Groundwork renewable energy sources suggests the selection of 3.2 mm-2 mm glass glass modules over 3.2 mm glass polymer-back shoes modules. The research concluded that glass/glass modules can withstand impact forces 1.7 times larger than their counterparts with glass polymer.
Another weather risk that can be unexpected of forest fires. Projects can experience 6% annual income losses due to distant wildfire smoke, according to NOAA-FINANCED SOUTION by 60Hertz Energy. This doubles loss estimates of the Risk Assessment Report 2022. The problem is not only insulated west: about 65% of the forest fires burn in the midwest, the northeast and the southeast, the report said.
Operational risks
The accurate modeling of the expected performance and output of a solar assets is important to ensure that it delivers the obligations of the electricity purchase agreement. KWH Analytics analyzed 34,000 system months of assets in service from 2015 to 2023, and noted that national assets experience 4.6% among the basic line models and loan agreements.
The report said that underperformance is probably due to a combination of subdivided risks such as extreme weather, curtailment, cutting losses and a tendency to perform performance scenes that are blown up because of poorly coordinated financial incentives to promise and subsequently supply too much.
The risk insurance company said that this emphasizes the need for improved data granularity and a sharper model accuracy for predicting solar performance to increase the trust of investors and to support the sustainable growth of industry.
Cyber security is another risk of stopping the radar, the report said. Check Point Research reported an increase of 70% in cyber attacks on utility companies in 2024. Since assets were strongly connected and are operated with advanced monitoring systems, solar solar and storage assets that are connected to the Raster the threat surface, says the report.
Another trend is an increase in hotspots in solar modules, is research by Zeitview. Hotspots can lead to a loss of up to 30% per module and cause long -term damage and breakdown, it said.
The prevalence of the hotspot increased from approximately 0.24% of the locations to 0.81% of the locations from 2023 to 2024, with glass cracks, clamp designs and cellism matches the main causes of hotspots module. Half-cut modules consistently reported the highest speed of hotspot problems, with an increase in 2024, Zeitview said. It orders inspections to perform and focus on the compatibility of the system component to reduce these problems.
The report also warns that performance modeling can underestimate the impact of climate change on future performance. Clean Power Research said that future climate models suggest a potentially 4.9% underperformance in the next 30 years. Although climate models suggest a trend of sunny days, this advantage is expected to be further at higher temperatures and lower rainfall that leads to more pollution losses. Clean Power Research said that integrating climate modeling will be required for more accurate financial predictions.
Artificial intelligence can also cause problems with the expectations of asset performance, says KWH Analytics, and notes that AI can classify up to 20% of operational issues if the model does not miss domain -specific training.
An “out-of-the-box” model tested by the group wrongly identified the main cause of critical damage categories such as weather-related and losses more than 40% to 50% of the time. Continuous updating and training of the AI can help reduce these problems, it said.
“Ultimately, although AI can drastically improve the risk assessment and management in solar activities, dependence on out-of-the-box models without and refining the process is a considerable risk,” says KWH Analytics.
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