Intertek CEA says tariffs tied to a Section 232 polysilicon probe could drive up U.S. solar panel prices through 2027, despite growing domestic production capacity.
Tech consultancy Intertek CEA has released its market intelligence reports for the fourth quarter of 2025, outlining its expectations for an extended period of higher solar panel prices in the United States – a trend likely to be exacerbated by, among other things, tariffs levied under the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports.
The analysis, which can be found in the company’s latest PV Supply, Technology and Policy Report and PV Price Forecast Report, provides information on the four tariffs and duties likely to be imposed on solar materials imports into the United States in 2026, including the Solar 4 AD/CVD duties, Section 232 tariffs and the recently repealed IEEPA “reciprocal” tariffs, which were replaced on February 20, 2026 by a import duty of 10%. under Section 122 after it was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
But the reports contain hopeful news for American buyers. While the price forecast report indicates that the Section 232 tariffs will make imported modules uneconomical for the majority of U.S. buyers, the supply report estimates that U.S. module makers will ramp up to 45 GW of annual production capacity by the end of 2025. This is enough to supply the total estimated 43 GW of capacity installed in the United States by 2025.
The company’s analysis shows that the domestic solar supply chain is moving towards a capacity of 60 GW by 2026, with an additional 16 to 20 GW likely from early 2027. However, the reports indicate that the domestic supply of solar cells is limited, as many planned cell factories are delayed or are not expected to actually expand until late 2026.
The price forecast report outlines a base case for possible Section 232 tariffs, with tariffs estimated at $10/kg for polysilicon, $0.07/W for ingots and wafers, and $0.10/W for cells.
Crucially, the group predicts that completed modules will be charged a rate of $0.20/W, with no exceptions. These tariffs are expected to drive most purchases toward domestic modules, a move that could contribute to significant price increases for U.S. buyers.
As of the first quarter of 2026, the price forecast report shows that U.S. tunnel oxide passivated contact modules (TOPCon) from suppliers eligible for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit under Section 45X are price competitive with current imports, but Intertek says the price will likely increase if imports of crystalline silicon modules are effectively kept out of the United States due to Section 232 tariffs.
Details about the Section 232 tariffs are expected to be unveiled by the Commerce Department this spring. Intertek’s analysis of non-FEOC, duty-free TOPCon modules imported from Southeast Asia, made with Chinese polysilicon and wafers, shows that the tariffs are expected to virtually erase the profit margin suppliers earn on these products for the foreseeable future.
Intertek CEA’s Market Intelligence reports provide insights into the global PV and ESS supply chain and pricing. Examples of the latest reports may include limited information about the company’s findings downloaded from the company’s website. Full access to the reports can be purchased from Intertek.
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