The production capacity of the Solar Module of India has reached around 100 GW and meets the domestic demand, says Sbicap’s. With the total number of capacity up to 190 GW in March 2027 in the midst of limited export opportunities, the market is confronted with oversupply risks.
The production capacity of India’s solar module has reached around 100 GW, sufficient to meet the annual domestic demand that, according to a report from SBICAPs, effective use of nameplate ratio of 55% to 65% outgoing. With the total module capacity that is expected to rise to 190 GW in March 2027, the concern about oversupply are on the rise, in particular in the midst of shrinking export options, especially for the United States.
The installations of solar energy in India rose year on year 60% in the tax year 2025 and reached around 24 GW. This required approximately 50 GW DC from modules, based on typical DC/AC -Overloading ratios from 1.2 to 1.4. The report estimates that the annual additives will rise to 40 GW to 50 GW to the tax year 2030 to reach the sunshots of the country, which implies a steady-state need of approximately 100 GW module production capacity.
With cumulative capacity that is expected to reach 190 GW by 2027 and limit export options – especially after recent American policy changes – an oversupply scenario seems likely. India exported only 4 GW of modules in the tax year 2025, a decrease in the year that was largely attributed to legal changes in the United States.
“The American administration has issued a directive to stop financing the IRA. The subsequent determination of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is expected to reduce the investment tax and production tax credits for solar and wind projects,” the report notes. “This has reduced the export of modules from India to the US – the most important export destination for Indian modules. In response, some players put factories there to adapt to the new FEOC (foreign entity of concern),” the report said.
Unlike adulthood in modules, solar cell capacity in India is only 26 GW DC-Linder than a third of the Module capacity that implies import dependence in the short term. However, the report emphasizes that the cell capacity will grow quickly with the implementation of Almm-II.
Under the Almm-II order, only cells of approved manufacturers may be used for projects with bids after 31 August 2025.
In addition, only Almm cells and modules may be used for projects that benefit from net measurement or open access rules, a movement that will open the important commercial and industrial market for domestic players.
It is expected that planned capacity addictions will take the cell capacity close to self-supply in the medium term, with a total of 115 GW DC of cell capacity projected on 31 March 2027. In the interim, higher prices for DCR cells, the project costs can be increased until the supply-axis-redemblet.
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