In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
FOB China: The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark rating for TOPCon modules from China, fell 1.15% this week to $0.086/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, amid lower price guidance between $0.080- 0.092/W.
Despite upstream price stability, module prices remain under pressure as manufacturers continue to reduce supply guidance. A top five module manufacturer told OPIS that charging prices will not increase significantly through 2025, even with higher upstream costs. Current offers from leading manufacturers of utility-scale projects are in the low $0.080/W range.
The FOB China TOPCon module price for the first half of 2025 was $0.085/W, with values between $0.082-0.087/W. For the second half of 2025, prices fell 1.2% to $0.084/W, with lower guidance at $0.082-0.087/W. Prices for the first quarter of 2026 were estimated at $0.083/W, with prices ranging from $0.083-0.087/W.
DDP Europe: TOPCon modules have fallen slightly as the market awaits price directions at the start of the new year. OPIS estimated the average price at €0.098/W, a decrease of 1.01% with indications between a low of €0.080/W and a high of €0.115/W for Tier1 panels.
European players are closely monitoring the Chinese manufacturing industry’s efforts to rebalance supply and demand through controlled production cuts. EU sources indicated that this could result in a small price increase after the upcoming Chinese New Year festivities at the end of January.
But the remaining big picture for now will be low prices as inventories in Europe are still too high and distributors need cash. “That’s why we saw a lot of dumping prices in December,” sources told OPIS.
On the residential side, the demand for solar panels varies from country to country, because the legislation and subsidy schemes are different. While Germany is promoting roof and balcony applications, Italy is focusing on smaller projects and Eastern Europe on larger solar installations.
Distributors’ average EXW prices for residential solar panels are reported between €0.125/W and €0.100/W, depending on volumes.
American DDP: The spot price for utility-scale TOPCon modules DDP US rose this week from 0.71% to $0.284/W. On a forward-looking basis, OPIS estimates TOPCon module costs to be $0.293/W in the second quarter of 2025, $0.291/W in the third quarter and $0.282/W at year-end and into 2026.
One developer source says $0.29/W to $0.32/W is being quoted for TOPCon modules from “preferred” manufacturers in countries subject to the ongoing AD/CVD case, while US manufacturers are assembling those modules with Indonesian cells offering prices in the low 0.20s. /W.
Concerns about potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act are widespread, and companies continue to secure port equipment to ensure they qualify for the Investment Tax Credit in 2025. The developer source said his company focuses on buying high-voltage breakers and generator step-up (GSU) transformers. The consultant source said a major community solar developer is focusing its own strategy on projects in “energy communities,” fearing the tax credit adder is on the chopping block.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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