In a new special, PV Magazine Brazil Reports on how rising Chinese demand, price volatility and the global technical race reform the Sun Market of Brazil, where large manufacturers weigh on supply shifts, prices and the prospects for storage.
Projections of the Brazilian association of photovoltaic solar energy (absolar) show that the installed solar capacity of Brazil will grow by 25% in 2025, with 13.2 GW on the grid, which brings the total to more than 64.7 GW.
While the Brazilian PV market continues to expand, large module suppliers are confronted with new pressure, including the rising domestic demand in China, new government subsidies and the construction of large plants. These factors influence export flows and start to influence the prices and availability of the module in Brazil, an important market for industry.
To explore this, PV -Magazine Great module manufacturers who are active in Brazil, including AE Solar, Astronergy, Canadian Solar, Huasun, JA Solar, Jinkosolar, Longi, Risen Energy and Trina Solar. They discussed how these challenges have reformed their supply strategies and shared their market share in Brazil, together with price predictions for the coming months. Some manufacturers presented more conservative views, while others offered different analyzes.
The interviews revealed a transition market, influenced by global forces and logistical decisions that go beyond the boundaries of Brazil. Suppliers also explained how they adapt to the growing competition and the challenge to guarantee predictability of delivery.
Most companies said that the peak in domestic demand in China is temporary and the supply has not affected Brazil. Managers of Trina Solar and Canadian Solar, for example, say that global production capacity is still exceeding demand.
“Manufacturers would have the capacity today to deliver more than 1 TW, while the world market uses around 600 GW,” said Carlos Ribeiro, the Canadian Solar Sales Manager.
Despite their trust, some recognize imbalances in the short term. JA Solar reported the price increases in the first quarter and press the delivery times.
“The challenge for manufacturers is to adjust the capacity without repeating the overproduction scenario from the past,” says Gabriel Magdalon, the company’s country manager.
The regional director of AE Solar, Jorge Moura, said that the focus of local manufacturers on complying with Chinese demand caused logistical delays for international projects. Huasun said that his scale and efficiency enabled it to maintain his delivery schedule.
“We have delivered 1.8 GW to centralized and distributed generation in just three months,” notes country manager Vinicius Luiz.
In Brazil is the perception of stability. Longi’s commercial director for Utility in Brazil, Gabriel Gonçalves, describes the situation as ‘punctual and limited in time’. Astronergy added that the impact was only felt in prices, not in availability. Risen, on the other hand, ensures that there was no capacity restriction.
Praise
Price projections for the second half of 2025 remain divided. Canadian solar managers expect an elevation that predicts a potential price of 12 cents FOB. “But everything depends on the attitude of Brazilian buyers in the light of competition from lower quality manufacturers,” said Carvalho.
Pereira, from Jinkosolar, also expects a short -term increase followed by stabilization. Astronergy and AE Solar, on the other hand, predict flat prices. “The production capacity is still exceeding worldwide demand. Competition will keep prices low,” said Moura.
Gonçalvez, from Longi, sees room for a rebound. “After historically low prices, the withdrawal into the worldwide offer will increase prices,” he said. Luiz, from Huasun, also expects gradual adjustments, especially in the first half of the year.
The future of photovoltaic modules remains disputed under HJT, Rugcontact (BC) and the more established tunneloxide -passivated contact (Topcon) technologies. The technological race has started and not all players support the same bets.
Most manufacturers still bet on the Dominance of Topcon, although a certain way in technical limitations and the growth of alternatives such as HJT and BC.
“Topcon will have more than 50% of the market in the coming four years,” says Trina’s García-Maltrás, with reference to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) and the International Technology Roadmap for PhotoVoltaic (ITRPV).
Jinkosolar’s Ganvano agreed and noted that “Topcon technology is efficient, compatible with the current factories and has an excellent cost-benefit ratio.”
The Canadian solar product manager Marcus Carvalho called an internal study in which it is projected that this technology will represent around 80% of global production by 2027, with a decrease expected in 2028 as perovskiet and tandem technologies arise.
“Topcon is still growing, it has not reached its peak,” explains Carvalho. “It still has a very long useful life at the top.”
The Canadian Zonne -Zonne energy already has two HJT production lines and is planning to reach 1.5 GW towards the end of 2025. It is also intended to open a factory in the United States.
Delivery capacity has become a competitive differentiator. Ricardo Marchezini, country manager of Risen Energy, said that the seven factories of the company a total of 48 GW and fully meet Brazilian demand. Longi, with 120 GW of global capacity, claimed that it can send between 20 MW and 100 MW weekly, depending on the project.
Marcus Carvalho said that the Canadian solar zon serves more than half of the national market and is aimed at smaller integrators. Trina Solar noticed the strength of his supply chain, with a Brazilian factory that produced up to 3 GW and a portfolio with locally produced trackers every year.
Gama van Astronergy and Pereira from Jinkosolar said that local teams and technical support are important distinctions. AE Solar, with 2.5 GW of global capacity, is expanding production to match market growth, Moura said. Huasun, which has 20 GW capacity, is ready to operate both large -scale projects and distributors, Luiz said.
Centralized generation
Manufacturers agree that the large-scale PV market contracts. Carvalho from Canadian Solar mentioned “few new projects” before 2026 and blamed high interest rates and disabilities. Gama van Astronergy repeated this, stating the prices and curtailment of Low Power Contract (PPA) as major barriers.
García-Maltrás from Trina Solar said that import taxes on modules have deteriorated the prospects. AE Solar gambles at lower prices and customized solutions to retain investor interest, Moura said. Jinko remains optimistic despite challenges.
Manufacturers criticize the current import policy. Risen calls for eliminating import tax as the first step, where Pereira notes: “There is no domestic production of technical resemblance.” Canadian solar sun called Instability the bigger problem.
“Changes without predictability are extremely harmful,” said Carvalho, referring to a rate increase from 0% to 25% in less than 30 days. “In Brazil we have assemblers, no manufacturers. A domestic module costs three times more than an imported.”
The storage sector starts to arise as a natural expansion of the generation of solar energy and a solution for scheduling restrictions. Carvalho said that the Canadian Zonne -Zon is already moving billions through recurring energy and made it clear that “batteries are the present and the future.” The company supports special incentives and regulations for the sector.
Risen Energy belongs to the leaders, with almost 20 years in batteries and more than 4 GWh. Marchezini said that the company is already a large currency supplier in the US and is planning to replicate that in Brazil with internal solutions and verticalized production.
Trina Solar operates Trina Storage, who includes everything, from cells to definitive systems and is active in South America with its own technical team, said García-Maltrás. Jinko promotes products such as Suntera for plants on Nuts scale and sees storage as “key to limiting limitation,” said Pereira.
Behind the scenes, manufacturers position themselves to take advantage of the announced battery auction of the government. If the stimuli are in accordance with the pent -up demand, Brazil could finally integrate storage in his energy transition in a competitive and structured way.
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