Researchers in China have investigated how market segment protection effects from 2017 to 2024 in the Chinese PV -Supply Chain are materialized and have identified a series of covering strategies that can help manufacturers to reduce risks. Their analysis showed that these effects are activated on the basis of a ” upstream driven, downstream responsive ” infection pattern.
Researchers at the Macau University of Science and Technology in China have the so-called overflow effects between the power-generating, center stream and power-reaching segments in the Chinese photovoltaic supply chain and have investigated that the polysilicon and module production are the most important sources of over-over overflowing from overflow of overlay-over-overflowing from overlaps of overflowing overflowing from overflowing overflowing from overflowing overflow.
“Both polysilicium and finished solar modules occupy crucial positions in the supply chain,” said the main author of the research, Tao Shen, said PV -Magazine. “From the perspective of the fundamental industrial structure, however, polysilicon has a broad influence on power-reaching segments as a core of power-racing raw material from the supply and price fluctuations. It is therefore generally considered more strategic and fundamental. The other vocational chain is generally considered something critical.”
By definition, overflow effects refer to the transfer of shocks from one market or segment to others, resulting in a step -by -step response. “Overcapacity is a typical source of such shocks, which means that risks downstream and spread over the entire industry through channels such as prices, profit and supplies,” she continued. “However, not all overflow effects come from overcapacity; any factor that disrupts the local balance – such as policy shifts, technological changes or international market dynamics – can serve as an important engine for overflow effects.”
The scientists used two time frequency models known as TVP-VAR-DY and TVP-VAR-VAR-BK to understand micro-dynamic overflow effects in the PV industry in China in an attempt to find stabilization solutions. Time frequency analysis Investigates the behavior of a signal in both the time and frequency domains at the same time. It was used in particular, In order to assess the size and direction of risk -motive effects at a specific time, which is said to help determine their periodicity and optimum delay, it offers a time window for risk fairs.
The analysis showed that the Chinese solar industry suffers from “pronounced” short-term risks, with policy “shocks” and price fluctuations that the lion share use when creating such effects. Moreover, the academics discovered that overflow effects usually develop on the basis of a ” upstream driven, downstream responsive ” infection pattern.
They also investigated three different covering strategies that manufacturers can implement to reduce risks: the minimum variance portfolio (MVP), which is aimed at achieving the lowest possible risk level for a particular one; The minimum net pair -wise Spillover portfolio (MCOP1), which takes into account risk -intact and reaches a highest Sharpe ratio; and the minimum overflow portfolio (MCOP2), which take into account the influence of third -party variables.
“Investment strategies based on overflow effects – such as the minimal spillover portfolio (MCOP2) – perform consistently better than the traditional minimum variance portfolio (MVP) in terms of risk -reduction efficiency,” they explained further. “In addition, bilateral hedge strategies show that bilateral benefits when reducing the volatility of portfolios and controlling costs, underlining their practical relevance as effective risk management instruments within the photovoltaic industrial chain.”
“In order to control the overflow effects without distorting the market competition, companies can implement hedge strategies that tackle the nature of these effects directly,” said Shen. “For example, companies can use financial instruments such as Futures contracts or long-term delivery agreements, as well as to pursue vertical integration over the supply chain, to distribute risks and cover them between different segments. Such measures help reduce the impact of price or capacity fluctuations and the fine of the ald. ‘
The research work was introduced in the paper “Interstage market crossing of the photovoltaic industrial chain in China“Published in Scientific reports.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to work with us and reuse part of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
