Surprisingly diverse innovations led to more dramatic cheaper solar panels
The costs of solar panels have fallen by more than 99 percent since the 1970s, which means that a widespread acceptance of photovoltaic systems that make sunlight into electricity possible.
A new MIT study breaks down on specific innovations that make such dramatic cost reductions possible, which shows that technical progress in a web of different research efforts and industries played a crucial role.
The findings can help with renewable energy companies to make more effective R and D investment decisions and to help policy makers identify areas to prioritize the growth of production and commitment.
The research approach of the researchers shows that important innovations are often created outside the sun sector, including progress in the manufacture of semiconductors, metallurgy, glass production, oil and gas drilling, construction processes and even legal domains.
“Our results show how complicated the process of cost improvement is, and how much scientific and technical advances, often at a very basic level, the core forms of these cost reductions. A great deal of knowledge has arisen from different domains and industries, and this network of knowledge is what these technologies improve,” says senior author jessika trancik, System, System, System, System, System,, professe, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mitste, in Mittute, in Mitstute, in Mitstute, in Mitstute, in Mitstute, in Mitstute, Systems, Systems, Systems, System.
Trancik is accompanied on the paper by Co-Lead Authors Goksin Kavlak, a former IDSS graduate student and postdoc who is now a senior energy employee at the Brattle Group; Magdalena Klemun, a former graduate Idss -student and postdoc who is now a university teacher at Johns Hopkins University; Former MIT Postdoc Ajinkya Kamat; As well as Brittany Smith and Robert Margolis of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The research appears in Plos One.
Identification of innovations
This work builds on mathematical models that the researchers have previously developed that teased the effects of engineering technologies on the costs of photovoltaic (PV) modules and systems.
In this study, the researchers wanted to elaborate on the scientific progress that drove those costs.
They combined their quantitative cost model with a detailed, qualitative analysis of innovations that influenced the costs of PV system materials, production steps and implementation processes.
“Our quantitative cost model led the qualitative analysis, so that we can take a good look at innovations in areas that are difficult to measure due to a lack of quantitative data,” says Kavlak.
Building on earlier work that identifies important cost control programs – such as the number of solar cells per module, wiring efficiency and silicon waffle area – the researchers performed a structured scan of the literature for innovations that will probably influence these drivers. They then grouped these innovations to identify patterns, in which clusters were revealed that lowered the costs by improving materials or prefabric components to streamline production and installation. Finally, the team followed the origin and timing of the industry for every innovation and has consulted domain experts to take the most important innovations at zero.
All in all, identified, they identified 81 unique innovations that influenced PV system costs since 1970, from improvements in anti -reflective glass to the implementation of fully online permit interfaces.
“With innovations you can always go to a deeper level, to things such as raw material processing techniques, so it was a challenge to know when they had to stop. That quantitative model to ground our qualitative analysis really helped,” says Trancik.
They chose to separate the PV module costs from the so-called balance of the system (forest), which relate to things such as mounting systems, inverters and wiring.
PV modules, which are connected to each other to form solar panels, masses are produced and can be exported, while many forest components have been designed, built and sold at the local level.
“By investigating innovations both at forest and within the modules, we identify the different types of innovations that have arisen in these two parts of PV technology,” says Kavlak.
Forest costs are more dependent on soft technologies, non -physical elements such as allowing procedures that have contributed considerably less to the cost improvement of PV compared to hardware innovations.
“Often it comes down to delays. Time is money, and if you have delays on construction sites and unpredictable processes that influence this balance of system costs,” says Trancik.
Innovations such as automated permit software, which marks code-compliant systems for rapid approval, show promise. Although it has not yet been quantified in this study, the team’s framework could support the future analysis of their economic impact and similar innovations that streamline the deployment processes.
Interconnected industry
The researchers discovered that innovations of the semiconductor, electronics, metallurgy and petroleum industry played an important role in lowering both PV and forest costs, but the forest costs were also influenced by innovations in software engineering and electric utilities.
Non -innovative factors, such as efficiency gain through bulk purchases and the accumulation of knowledge in the solar energy industry, also reduced some cost variables.
Although most PV panel innovations originated in research organizations or industry, many forest innovations were developed by city governments, American states or professional associations.
“I knew that there was a lot going on with this technology, but the diversity of all these areas and how closely related to each other, and the fact that we can clearly see that network through this analysis was interesting,” says Trancik.
“PV was very well positioned to absorb innovations from other industries – thanks to the right timing, physical compatibility and support policy to adjust innovations for PV applications,” Klemun adds.
The analysis also shows that the role of larger computing power could play in lowering the forest costs due to progress such as automated engineering review systems and external sites for site -rating software.
“As far as the overflow of knowledge is concerned, what we have seen in PV so far is perhaps just the start,” says Klemun, pointing to the growing role of robotics and AI-driven digital tools in stimulating future cost reductions and quality improvements.
In addition to their qualitative analysis, the researchers have demonstrated how this methodology could be used to estimate the quantitative impact of a certain innovation if one has the numerical data to connect to the cost comparison.
For example, with the help of information about material prices and production procedures, they estimate that sawing wire, a technique that was introduced in the 1980s, led to a total decrease in the PV system costs of $ 5 per Watt by reducing silicon losses during the manufacture.
“Because of this retrospective analysis you learn something valuable for the future strategy because you can see what worked and what did not work, and the models can also be used prospectively. It is also useful to know which adjacent sectors can help to support improvement in a certain technology,” says Trancik.
In the future, the researchers are planning to apply this methodology to a wide range of technologies, including other renewable energy systems. They also want to study soft technology to identify innovations or processes that can accelerate cost reductions.
“Although the process of technological innovation may seem like a black box, we have shown that you can study it just like all other phenomena,” says Trancik.
This research is partially financed by the American Department of Energy Solar Energies Technology Office.
Research report:“The nature of innovations that influence photovoltaic system costs”
