The price of silver rose above $ 44 per ounce this week after winning more than 30% in six months, with silver expert Philip Newman count PV -Magazine Next year it could exceed $ 50 per ounce, which increases the pressure on PV module makers the use of silver modules.
The silver price rose to $ 44.86 per ounce this week, the highest level in a decade. In comparison with an average silver price of $ 28.27 per ounce in 2024 and $ 23.35 per ounce in 2023.
“There are many factors that contribute to this growth, but two in particular push the silver price so high” PV -Magazine.
Newman noted that this price has risen by more than 30% in the last six months. “The American Federal Reserve recently started reducing interest rates and can further lower them and next year,” he said. “This is positive for gold and silver because it lowers your wife.”
Lowering these costs makes silver and gold cheaper compared to interest or income-generating assets, increasing their appeal to investors. That in turn explains downward pressure on the US dollar, because the metals are often considered a hedge against currency evaluation.
“I think gold is the most important beneficiary of this situation, but silver gets the positive overflow effects,” said Newman. “There are also worries about stagflation, which can further take care of silver and gold prices. And the uncertainty generated by the current geopolitical scenarios of course. The uncertainty between China and the US, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy, also weigh on the silver price.”
Newman said that price volatility can be higher for silver than for gold, given the smaller size of the silver market.
“Despite this volatility, I see no risks of silver shortages for the PV industry,” he said. “The industrial question of the silver is not very strong at the moment. Although the third quarter of the year is usually the strongest seasonal for consumer electronics industry, the tariff uncertainty saw many orders brought forward to the second quarter. The PV -Market is also weaker than normal, but that was mainly because many of the first five months of the first year in the first year in the first year in the year in the first year in ended. “
He said that macro and geopolitical factors will continue to push both this year and the following silver prices.
“It is quite possible that we can see the $ 50 per ounce threshold next year,” he added. “This can encourage PV manufacturers to further reduce silver loads in their products.”
He said that the silver costs are currently good for around 11% to 13% of the module costs.
According to the focus analysis of Metals, the PV industry saw the average taxes fall by approximately 20% in 2024 and this year it can achieve a further reduction in tax reduction, which could be more than 15%. “Silver for $ 40 or going in the neighborhood or higher is a huge challenge for the industry, but we have also seen how quickly some PV manufacturers can innovate,” he said.
Newman said he does not believe that the prices of solar module can rise due to higher silver prices. “This is very difficult, especially because the problem of overcapacity forced manufacturers to continue to compete on price and efficiency.”
He said that he is also convinced that this situation can help to create -based products and can create more favorable conditions for heterojunction (HJT) solar technologies (HJT), which are less dependent on silver.
“HJT has already hired Copper Copper Pasta on a large scale, and we now believe that the production costs per watt per watt can be lower than those of topcon cells when the silver prices are higher than $ 40,” he said. “However, this also forced topcon manufacturers to speed up thrifting and replacement to maintain their competitiveness.”
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