Wood Mackenzie says that the prices of modules will rise when China ends with export discounts and consolidates the production of polysilicon.
Wood Mackenzie predicts that the prices of solar module will increase by a maximum of 9% in the fourth quarter of this year, driven by three factors: the planned consolidation of the Chinese polysilicon industry, production production of the supply chain and the cancellation of China’s 13% VAT export rebat from October.
“Over the past 18 months, developers have benefited from solar modules and energy storage systems that are sold against rock prices by Chinese manufacturers trying to shift surplus offer,” said Yana Hryshko, senior research analyst and head of the global solar supply chain at Wood Mackenzie. “However, this is about to change. The Chinese government is intervening to stabilize the market and developers will have to adjust their purchasing expectations accordingly.”
The prices of solar module reached historic lows from $ 0.07 to $ 0.09 per Watt in 2024 and early 2025, which Hryshko described as a turning point.
“Manufacturers of modules have already warned international customers to expect around 9% price increases in Q4 as a result of the cancellation of the VAT discount,” Hryshko noted. “Without the possibility of alternative offer in the short term, developers will have little choice than to absorb these higher costs.”
According to the report, polysilicon makers with a use of 55% to 70% work, while manufacturers of cells and modules saw their use fall to 55% to 60% against mid-2025.
Wood Mackenzie added that the removal of the 13% VAT export club will also influence the battery prices, which is expected to rise by a similar percentage.
Analysts called the Shift A “Structural correction away from destructive prize wars to sustainable margins. “
“This shift will ultimately benefit the health of the industry,” Hryshko explained. “For manufacturers it is a welcome opportunity to invest and innovate again. For developers, this means adjusting the expectations of purchasing. And for policymakers it is a timely memory of the risks inherent in concentrated supply chains.”
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