Prediction software Zonario has launched the new Omniscale Next-generation Ensemble (ONE) offering to deliver critical weather and energy insights.
“Sunairio ONE is trained on the Sunairio High-Resolution Earth Dataset (the SHED), our proprietary archive of high-resolution historical weather data purpose-built to replicate detailed risks to the modern power grid,” said Rob Cirincione, CEO of Sunairio.
Sunairio started with the industry’s historical weather data, used machine learning to improve resolution, and then trained ONE on that data while accounting for changing climate fundamentals. Sunairio ONE generates ensembles of 1,000 members per hour, compared to traditional methods that stop at 50 members. The result is more comprehensive forecast fidelity for load, renewables and grid voltage on all time scales.
“Alternative forecasting methods rarely display more than 50 forecast scenarios, leaving users unable to see the make-or-break events,” Cirincione explains. “Imagine if I told you there was a one in fifty chance of winning the lottery, except you don’t win the lottery, the power grid goes out, or your company goes bankrupt. That’s the risk we take with these limited predictions.”
Sunairio ONE forecasts support actionable information for reliable planning for energy markets and utilities. It is designed to support a range of use cases, including:
- Probabilistic energy trading and hedging strategy: Ensembles predict future energy price ranges and show potential for risk versus reward.
- Asset-level renewable energy forecasting: Sunairio ONE provides probabilistic forecasts for individual renewable energy assets (including availability and curtailment losses) for independent energy suppliers, utilities and public market participants.
- Climate-aware portfolio risk management: accurately calculates the risk to energy investments due to weather-dependent impacts on load, wind and solar.
“Some of the biggest risks to power grids are hidden in plain sight. They don’t always look like hurricanes, which makes them more treacherous. They increasingly look like unusual weather combinations that increase demand while reducing production of renewable energy sources: heat that lingers in the twilight or polar vortex cold breaks that arrive with calm winds,” said Raiden Hasegewa, PhD, director Data Science at Sunairio. “By combining weather and energy in an advanced forecasting model, we give companies insights they cannot get anywhere else.”
News item from Sunairio
