Renewable energy is still growing faster than fossil fuels around the world despite policy changes in the United States, with oil demand possibly peaking “around 2030”, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
The Paris-based IEA presented several scenarios for the future of energy in its annual World Energy Outlook – the first since it came under fire from US President Donald Trump’s administration over its oil forecasts.
“The pace varies, but renewables are growing faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios, led by solar photovoltaics,” the agency, which advises mainly developed countries, said in its 518-page report.
In one scenario, “policy changes mean that the United States will have 30 percent less renewable energy capacity installed in 2035 than in last year’s Outlook, but renewables will continue their rapid expansion globally.”
The report comes as world leaders meet at the U.N. COP30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, which Trump and his administration have avoided.
Trump, who withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, wants to expand oil and gas production and roll back the clean energy policies of his predecessor Joe Biden.
The IEA had to walk a fine line in crafting its latest view as it faced criticism from the Trump administration over its forecasts of declining demand for fossil fuels.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright threatened to quit the IEA in July if it did not reform the way it operates.
– ‘Politically motivated’ –
The IEA used three scenarios for its World Energy Outlook: one takes into account policies currently in place, another looks at ‘declared’ government policies, including measures yet to be adopted, and a third considers a world reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
According to the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), demand for oil and natural gas would increase by 16 percent until 2035 and continue to rise until 2050.
The IEA had removed such scenarios from its 2020 reports.
“That (CPS) scenario is completely politically motivated,” Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told reporters at COP30 in Belem.
“The Trump administration has unfortunately implemented bad policies in the United States and attempted to undermine policies around the world.”
In the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand would peak “around 2030” and fall to 100 million barrels per day by 2035, before declining in subsequent years.
In a June report, the IEA had forecast that global oil demand would fall slightly in 2030, marking the first decline since the 2020 Covid pandemic.
According to the World Energy Outlook, demand for electricity, fueled by data centers and artificial intelligence, is rising in advanced economies and China, along with the increasing use of air conditioning in developing countries.
Under any scenario, China remains the largest market for renewable energy, accounting for 45 to 60 percent of global deployment over the next decade.
Under either scenario, however, the IEA said global warming would exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the most ambitious target of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
“There is less momentum than before behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions, yet climate risks are increasing,” the report said.
Under the CPS, warming would exceed 2 degrees Celsius around 2050 and above 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100 – and continue to rise from there.
In STEPS, warming would exceed 2 degrees Celsius around 2060, and even more than 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2100.
But in the net zero scenario, temperatures would peak around 1.65 degrees Celsius around 2050 and then slowly decline, before falling back below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the IEA.
The IEA has “confirmed that no country can stop the energy transition, with demand for oil and coal set to peak in 2030 under the business-as-usual scenario,” said David Tong, global industry campaigns manager at Oil Change International, a nonprofit organization.
“But this year’s report also shows Donald Trump’s dystopian future, bringing back the old, fossil fuel-intensive and highly polluted current policy scenario,” he said.
