In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
Free-On-Board (FOB) TOPCon cells remained stable this week amid weak trading activity during the Lunar New Year holiday break. According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report published on February 24, FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices were found stable at $0.0559/W this week.
Most manufacturers withdrew spot fast-load offers one to two weeks before the holidays, with new bookings postponed until the following month, market sources said. Producer sources added that prices will be reassessed after the holidays as production costs continue to shift, mainly due to upstream price movements and silver costs.
FOB Chinese wafer and polysilicon prices have fallen since the start of the year, despite gains in downstream markets. Prices for FOB China n-type M10 wafers this week were $0.164/piece, down 8.9% since the beginning of the year, while China Mono Premium – OPIS’s rating for mono-grade polysilicon used in the production of n-type ingots – cost CNY50.917 ($7.44)/kg, down 4.5% over the same period.
Manufacturers were also heard adjusting their operational strategies since the start of this year, with capacity utilization reflecting a more “build-to-order” approach, amid high production costs and weak end-user demand. However, post-holiday production schedules remain uncertain, with limited visibility into second-quarter demand.
Market participants noted that the direction of cell prices will largely follow module demand. Some expect module export demand to be pushed back to the first quarter of 2026 ahead of policy changes that could temporarily support mobile phone prices. However, sources say continued weakness in module demand in the second half of 2026 could put downward pressure on mobile phone supply.
Meanwhile, domestic module suppliers in India have started securing supplies of cells from manufacturers approved under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II, ahead of its implementation on June 1. From this date, modules supplied in ALMM covered projects must be manufactured using cells from List II approved manufacturers.
However, market participants note that the current domestic supply of mobile phones remains tight. While OPIS estimates total ALMM List II cell capacity at around 26.5 GW, MNRE data shows that India installed nearly 35 GW of solar capacity between April 2025 and January 2026, keeping the quoted cell availability below the recent installation run rate. List II cell capacity is also well below List I module capacity of approximately 162 GW. Market participants noted that the mismatch could increase the supply of fully compatible modules and increase the supply of domestic modules as the deadline approaches.
In addition, the recently released China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) Roadmap 2025-2026 highlighted technology adoption and efficiency goals to 2025 and beyond. TOPCon cells remained the dominant technology in 2025 with an 87.6% market share, while PERC fell to 3%. HJT accounted for 2.6%, while XBC rose to 6.7%, driven by technical progress and industrial promotion.
According to the report, the average n-type TOPCon cell efficiency is expected to reach 26% in 2026 and 26.6% in 2030. The HJT and
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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