In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
Free-On-Board (FOB) China TOPCon modules rose this week, supported by firmer April cargo loading indications. Top producer sources said most March deliveries have already sold out, pushing price talks to April and wider deliveries in the second quarter.
The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark rating for TOPCon modules from China, rose 3.45% to $0.120/W FOB China, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on March 3.
However, trading activity in April remains subdued. Manufacturers noted that buyers remain largely on the sidelines, waiting for softer prices in the coming weeks. Many are reluctant to confirm purchases as they expect prices may weaken in April following the cancellation of the export tax rebate. One international module buyer told OPIS that it would prefer to postpone negotiations and reassess pricing terms after the first quarter of 2026, citing recent market volatility.
Market participants said the price outlook for the second quarter of 2026 remains uncertain. Manufacturers continue to adjust manufacturing economics in response to shifting export policies, fluctuating input costs, weak end-user demand and industry guidelines requiring manufacturers to limit their business rates.
According to the forward curve of the OPIS TOPCon module, FOB China freights in Q2 2026 were assessed 0.83% lower at $0.120/W, while freights in Q3 2026 remained stable at $0.122/W.
One leading manufacturer noted that silver, which previously accounted for only 3-5% of module costs, has become a major cost driver due to recent price increases and tight supply. The source added that production limits set by industry regulators have increased cost pressures as manufacturers are not allowed to operate at full capacity, keeping fixed costs high despite lower capacity utilization.
In global markets, recent US-Israeli tensions with Iran have so far had limited direct impact on China’s trade in solar panels and cells, sources said. Although several Chinese manufacturers have established or are building production capacity in the region, most projects are still in the early stages of development, limiting the sector’s direct exposure.
However, the conflict has had a more direct impact on container shipping, the main mode of transportation for solar energy products into the region. Several shipping lines to the Middle East have been suspended due to rising freight rates, and short-term logistics disruptions could delay raw material deliveries and contribute to price volatility.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department last week announced preliminary countervailing duties on solar cells and modules imported from companies in India, Indonesia and Laos, citing subsidy support in those markets. The overall subsidy rates were set at 125.87% for India, 85.99% to 143.30% for Indonesia and 80.67% for Laos.
Indian manufacturers described preliminary CVD rates as unexpectedly high and asked for time to assess the price impact. A US distributor added that the final effect will depend on demand for modules from the affected countries – which is likely to weaken as investigations progress and production shifts to new regions – and on the average sales prices at which the duties are applied.
According to the same OPIS report, the spot price for Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) US TOPCon modules rated at 600W and above rose 0.35% this week to $0.290/W.
In addition, updated US guidance issued earlier this month on the Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules clarified that upstream inputs – including wafers, ingots and polysilicon – are excluded from the calculation of FEOC-related material assistance costs.
Industry sources said the clarification has reduced the urgency for some Chinese manufacturers who had been evaluating overseas production options ahead of China’s planned removal of the 9% export tax credit for waffle exports in April. The policy change is expected to raise export costs for Chinese waffle makers, but sources say the revised U.S. guidelines have led some companies to reassess whether overseas leasing or production arrangements remain economically justified.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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