VDE America has enhanced its proprietary hail risk model with newly analyzed wind speed data, improving the accuracy of hail damage predictions for solar power generation facilities.
Recent analysis of meteorological data by VDE shows that winds during hailstorms could be stronger than previously thought, with wind speeds in some locations more than doubling previous estimates. VDE came to this conclusion after carefully filtering weather data to focus on events in which hailstorms passed directly over weather stations in the contiguous United States. Stronger winds cause hailstones to hit the panels more directly and with greater force, increasing the risk of solar panels breaking. By incorporating these more accurate wind speeds into the hail risk model, VDE’s risk assessments better reflect real-world storm conditions.
This visualization of meteorological data shows potentially damaging hail events near operational utility-scale solar facilities that came into service before 2025 versus events near facilities that were fully commissioned or under construction in 2025.
“Wind speed and direction affect both the fall angle and impact energy of hail,” Central Michigan University explains Dr. John Allena leading expert in hail meteorology and loss modelling, and consultant for VDE. “To effectively predict damage in the field, hail loss models must account for the influence of wind. VDE’s improved loss model better informs this critically important piece of the puzzle by more accurately characterizing representative wind speed and direction during hail events.”
NREL archive photo of hail damage.
VDE’s analysis of weather radar data from 2025 indicates that very severe convective storms, characterized by hail exceeding 1.5 inches (45 mm) – a typical threshold for solar panel damage – occurred at or near dozens of utility-scale solar facilities. Despite the relatively high frequency of events, reported catastrophic losses in 2025 were lower than in previous years, possibly due in part to increased adoption of hail storage protocols and severe weather warning services. Yet hail remains the biggest catastrophic hazard facing the solar industry.
“Our loss database of physical damage to renewables shows that hail is responsible for 73% of total solar losses, despite representing only 6% of loss events,” said Nicole Thompson, Senior Data Science Manager for Property Insurance at kWh analysisa specialized climate insurer. “Additionally, we found that, calculated from the count, 19% of these hail-related losses occurred in North Carolina, which is not traditionally considered a high risk area for hail.”
To ensure customers always have access to the latest developments in VDE Hail Risk Intelligence, the company is launching an annual subscription service that automatically delivers annually updated hail loss reports to support insurance renewals. The subscription service and other related products, including hail risk maps, prepared financial loss reports and hail storage protocols, are available from VDE America’s new sales portal.
“Solar energy is the largest source of new electricity capacity worldwide, but without adequate planning, the combination of wind and hail poses a significant threat to the operation of these facilities,” said Brian Grenko, CEO and president of VDE Americas. “Our Hail Risk Intelligence products and services provide project stakeholders with the most accurate data available to optimize asset resilience and limit potential financial losses.”
News item from VDE
