More than 35 GW of renewable energy capacity in India could face the risk of grid curtailment in fiscal 2027 due to limited transmission access in the long term, Crisil Ratings said in a recently released report. The risk stems from rapid capacity additions that outpace the rollout of transmission infrastructure.
Curtailments over longer periods can reduce project returns, affecting debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) and internal rates of return on equity (IRR). Sponsor support and liquidity buffers will be critical to maintaining debt service in the early stages of projects.
Solar-driven capacity expansions increase surplus generation during the day, increasing evacuation restrictions. Projects operating under Temporary General Network Access (TGNA) accounted for 80% of total curtailment between April and December 2025 and saw 39% of capacity curtailed between November 2025 and February 2026.
The curtailment is most pronounced in Rajasthan and Gujarat, which together account for 45% of India’s renewable energy capacity. In these states, 13 GW to 14 GW of TGNA capacity faced up to 50% curtailment due to mismatches between generation and transmission availability.
Long-term general network access (LT GNA) projects benefit from dedicated transmission infrastructure, multi-year access and priority planning, while TGNA projects typically lack robust connectivity and face greater curtailment risk.
Crisil estimates that 20 GW of new renewable energy capacity will be commissioned in the Inter-State Transmission System (ISTS) under TGNA in the fiscal year 2027. Combined with 17 GW of existing TGNA capacity as of February 2026, the total capacity exposed to the curtailment risk could reach 35 GW to 37 GW.
High containment levels can significantly impact project performance. A 50% curtailment for twelve months could reduce the DSCR by up to 10 basis points and the equity IRR by up to 150 basis points.
Crisil Ratings said three factors could limit near-term credit impact: TGNA exposure is concentrated in recently completed projects with limited repayment obligations, sponsor support remains strong and liquidity buffers such as debt service reserve accounts help manage short-term risks.
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