Households and businesses will play a greater role in balancing the electricity system this summer.
The National Energy System Operator’s (NESO) Summer Outlook 2026 released today shows there will be sufficient supply to meet demand and reserve needs throughout the summer.
That’s despite the fact that, as Chief Operating Officer Kayte O’Neill acknowledged in her introduction, the prospects were being produced.in the most volatile market context since 2022”.
In fact, NESO expects an increase in the daily operations required to enable efficient operations as the lower demand experienced in the summer months combines with the potential for large amounts of solar and wind generation.
O’Neill said: “Low demand is increasingly driven by weather patterns – particularly solar photovoltaic (PV) generation – rather than underlying consumer behaviour.”
While “too much” solar energy cannot be generated, as some headlines state, the electricity grid is currently unable to manage potential oversupply during periods of high solar radiation and low demand.
Christophe Williams, founder and CEO of solar thermal company Naked Energy said: “While concerns are growing that solar is flooding the grid, we need to consider the bigger picture. The problem is not too much renewable energy, but that our grid was never designed for a decentralized, electrified energy system.”
His answer is grid-edge technologies such as those from Naked Energy.
NESO said there may be periods when it needs to use the full range of its standard operating tools, including issuing a Negative Reserve Active Power Margin (NRAPM) notice. NRAPM notifications, while rare, are part of the standard toolset for managing the system.
Perhaps most noticeably, especially for consumers and businesses struggling with the impacts of climate change prospect of higher energy bills in the summer monthsNESO said it will update the design of its demand flexibility service (DFS), which will encourage shifting energy consumption to periods of oversupply.
This will happen in the form of much cheaper electricity that is offered for use at those times. The changes, which NESO will publish at the end of this month, include the introduction of a negative margin element and lower capacity thresholds. The updated service will also reduce barriers for smaller resources and renewable assets to play a role in balancing the system.
Sam Hollister, head of UK market strategy at consultancy LCP Delta, called the Summer Outlook 2026 “further evidence that using energy more intelligently, combined with renewables, can help reduce energy bills and our dependence on fossil fuels”.
“NESO’s demand flexibility service is a critical step that will create opportunities to reduce energy bills more widely, harnessing excess wind and solar energy and decarbonizing the electric grid.”
DFS is used by NESO in addition to other balancing tools, including the Balancing Mechanism.
The company expects that during periods of low demand, caused by both weather and consumers, it will use its growing battery storage fleet to provide “significant” intraday flexibility, by cycling regularly to match supply and demand, and by offering essential system services such as fast-acting frequency response.
Export electricity
Another way in which electricity can be managed during periods when supply exceeds demand is through electricity exports via interconnectors.
According to the Summer 2026 Outlook, peak demand this year is forecast at 29.7 GW, consistent with the 2025 peak. This means that Britain will have the capacity to export energy.
Commenting on the report, Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “Thanks to progress towards the UK’s net zero target, the deployment of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind means we are expected to be an intermittent energy exporter this summer.
“This will reduce prices so much that consumers can get a real bargain if they turn on the washing machine when it is really sunny.”
However, NESO’s report notes that the growth of renewable energy generation in continental Europe suggests that there will also be an oversupply in interconnected markets. The market design means that this could result in planned imports into Britain even during periods of low demand.
