U.S. PV capital expenditure (capex) is expected to grow significantly through 2027, in what is likely to be a breakout year for the domestic crystalline silicon (c-Si) industry.
Investments are forecast to reach as much as $7 billion by 2027, representing annual growth of approximately 150%, with investments in the c-Si value chain potentially accounting for more than 90% of spend, compared to approximately 10% for thin film (First Solar).
This article provides the first detailed analysis of US-specific investments in PV manufacturing, created bottom-up by analyzing the investments, effective capacities and production levels of more than 35 domestic manufacturers in the United States; per year back until 2020 and per quarter until the end of 2027.
The details behind this new analysis provide the backdrop for the content that will be presented on stage Solar energy production US 2026 in Austin, Texas on September 22-23, 2026 – the first event held in the United States devoted exclusively to domestic PV manufacturing, equipment supply, technologies deployed and materials supply chains.
Capex and opex are the new benchmarks for domestic production
Since details of the Inflation Reduction Act were announced in 2022, manufacturing capacity in the United States has developed somewhat irregularly, marked by First Solar’s new thin-film factories in several states in the Southeast and a spread of c-Si module factories across the country, with Texas is taking the lead from a production perspective.
While it is a huge step forward for a country that for years was supplied by factories in Southeast Asia and primarily financed and operated by Chinese PV manufacturers, the investment climate for c-Si investments across the entire value chain in the United States has been largely subdued in recent years.
This stemmed from insecurity. Would the United States continue to be supplied with upstream components produced abroad as foreign companies move capacity from one country to another to avoid the latest round of AD/CVD tariffs? Or would the requirements for foreign ownership and control create a gap in expansion plans that domestic entities could not fill?
However, over the past six months it appears that these uncertainties have been overcome. Old issues with foreign ownership now appear to be being addressed, and plans have emerged from companies like Canadian Solar, Corning and Tesla that suggest a new landscape for domestic PV production in the United States is imminent.
In short, it appears that building a domestic manufacturing ecosystem is now an accepted reality; not only for upstream cells, wafers and blocks, but also for the associated raw material supply chains that feed manufacturing activity through the value chain.
Finally, the United States is moving from pursuing ambitious capacity announcement plans to analyzing capex and operating expenditures (opex); the key metrics associated with a credible and sustainable manufacturing segment.
Solar’s first U.S. expansions are being overshadowed by silicon-based competitors
As of 2023, First Solar was the leading company investing in new manufacturing capacity in the United States, committing more than $2.5 billion between 2023 and 2025 for new greenfield sites in Alabama and Louisiana, in addition to upgrades in Ohio. This level of spending accounted for approximately one-third of all PV investments in the United States during this period.
It now appears that 2027 will be the breakout year for c-Si capex in the United States, driven in part by new cell-stage capacity additions from existing module makers. However, the most significant additions in 2027 will come from the expected start of capital investments by Tesla and an expected round of investments in rod/wafer and module capacity by Corning.
First Solar’s new thin-film plants in Alabama and Louisiana were a major contributor to the increase in US PV investments in 2023 and 2024, with c-Si-based PV investments now dominating investments.
Spending on deposition instruments from 2027 onwards could be a crucial moment
To date, c-Si spending has largely been focused on new module assembly lines, with the majority of deposition equipment investments coming from First Solar’s new thin-film investments. However, this will change as cell capacity will be prioritized from 2027.
In both c-Si and thin film value chains, deposition equipment is probably the most important aspect of any technology roadmap and internal technical competency. This was recognized by the Chinese PV ecosystem in 2017-2018 when the country looked to develop and produce deposition tools to drive its leading cell manufacturers to move from p-type mono-PERC structures to more advanced cell architectures.
While there is a strong accumulated capacity for polysilicon manufacturing, ingot drawing, wafer cutting, and module assembly are necessary to build out a self-contained PV manufacturing ecosystem, technical competence and leadership in critical tools and process flow controls for cell manufacturing are essential for the United States to become a major player in the PV manufacturing space.
US PV investments are expected to see the first major outlays in c-Si cell build-out in 2027, with the domestic sector moving from the ability to assemble modules to knowledge and ownership of cell manufacturing.
Southeast hubs are emerging while Texas continues to lead the pack in module manufacturing
Similar to the bidding wars that often occur elsewhere in the world when new plant investments first slow down, PV investment in the United States has gravitated toward locations where incentives are offered.
This has created a hub of activity in states across the Southeast, including Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. All of First Solar’s expansion outside of Ohio has been in the Southeast; Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina.
Texas dominates PV investments in the Southwest, including Canadian Solar, Elin Elektrik, Waaree Energies, VSun, T1 Energy, SEG Solar and Imperial Star.
Beyond First Solar’s thin-film investments in Ohio, Midwestern states have also been the focus of investments, most notably Canadian Solar’s cell build in Indiana and Corning’s new ingot and wafer lines in Michigan.
However, a major contribution to the 2027 capex forecast comes from Tesla’s plans which have yet to reveal a specific location, either as a standalone integrated hub or via geographically distributed capacity expansions.
States in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest dominate new PV manufacturing investments in the United States today, with Tesla’s factory location(s) yet to be revealed.
While the spending of the 35 to 40 companies driving the expansion of PV production in the United States today can be allocated to specific areas, the biggest swing factor in predicting the capital investments (and associated additional c-Si production volumes in the United States from 2028) comes from Tesla’s plans to create one of the largest PV manufacturing entities in the PV industry.
Forecasting domestic investment is now essential to understanding U.S. PV production growth
Capex is the most important metric for any manufacturing analyst; The control here should not be underestimated. The granularity of capital investments at the quarterly level (specific to the value chain and technology/process flow) allows the ramp-up and phasing of production to be accomplished in a much more credible and useful manner than the traditional US focus on unsubstantiated and speculative media announcements.
Capex provides a way to predict productivity twelve to eighteen months in advance, but no longer. In this context, the forecasts for the end of 2027, as shown in this article, are at the limit and are necessary to anticipate hard details on some of the production activity in the period 2028-2030, which could bring major changes to the overall US PV production landscape.
This includes Corning’s expected capital investments in 2027 to meet the company’s 2030 solar goals.
But the biggest impact on capital expenditure in 2027 will come from Tesla’s plans. The scale and ambition of building out 100 GW of c-Si capacity (ingot-to-module, or simply cell/module) appears to be spooking the US PV sector, with few outlets considering the potential impact of this massive volume of new capacity on the domestic scene.
Regarding the balance of probabilities, I have included this as an important part of the approx. A PV capex of $7 billion is forecast for 2027, although this has yet to be allocated at any state level.
The question for me is not whether many of the plans will become reality, but how to phase in spending in different parts of the c-Si value chain. The potential for market disruption here is so profound that all stakeholders in the US PV industry should take notice and assess what impact Tesla’s plans could have on the industry’s overall trajectory through 2035.
The new one Solar energy production US 2026 The conference in Austin, Texas on September 22-23, 2026 was created to understand and map exactly how the domestic manufacturing landscape in the United States will unfold in the coming years.
If you would like to be part of this special meeting and share your thoughts on the domestic manufacturing space, please contact us via the contact links on the event portal here.
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