October 1, 2025
The first half of 2025 has seen a sharp drop -off in the community installations of the community in the United States, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie In collaboration with the Coalition for community access for the community (CCSA). After a record year in 2024, the American community market with the community drops 36% in the first half of 2025 in an annual analysis, resulting in 437 MWDC of newly installed capacities.
Due to the adjustment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and related federal policy changes, the cumulative five -year community persons of Wood Mackenzie dropped by 8% compared to the Outlook published in Q2 2025.
“In general, we expect that the national community capacity installed of the community will contract with an average of 12% annually with an average of 12%,” said Caitlin Connelly, senior analyst and main author of the report. “The final account offers a crucial four -year window for projects that are already under development to come online and secure the investment tax credit (ITC), to support construction in the short term. From mid -2025 there are more than 9 GWDC of community projects in the community, with more than 1.4 GWDC that is known
The growth in emerging markets slows down
According to the report, the market contraction in H1 2025 is mainly powered by steep falls in volumes in New York and in Maine, where the current program was recently overhauled. Programs in some major state markets are close to or on capacity, and various programs in states, including Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey, get stuck in transitions between program -literations.
New state markets can bring more capacity for the market, but this year there has been limited success in adopting legislation on solar programs.
“The early outcome of the ITC will only contribute to this difficulty in view of the new projects window to secure tax credits is so small,” said Connelly. “The approval of legislation in new markets may add more than 1.1 GWDC until 2030 to 2030.”
CCSA President and CEO Jeff Cramer urges a few clear places on the market, but urged it to take advantage of the chance.
“The customer’s question for a community zonne has never been stronger and we see states increasing with historical extensions such as the 3000 MW and Massachusetts of New Jersey 900 MW,” said Cramer. “These clear places show what is possible when policymakers work to unlock capacity. At the same time, this report makes clear the challenges, from federal uncertainty to interconnection trends and program caps, which must be tackled to realize the full potential of community zoning and asking the resilient, affordable power communities.”
Subscriber -acquisition costs fall, challenges for the LMI market
Acquisite acquisition costs fell on average 5% of H2 2024 in all customer segments. The business demand for community sages remains high, so that the share of the commercial solar energy in the total community capacity of the community drives up to 53%. However, developers and subscription management companies are confronted with increased headwind when subscribing customers with low to moderate income (LMI). Difficult subscriber acquisition dynamics reduced the share of community capacity for the low-to-effect income (LMI) subscribers to 9%. The customer segment remains the most expensive to subscribe to $ 102/kW compared to $ 72/kW for non-LMI residential customers.
Developers are looking for new growth opportunities
As new community programs for the community have difficulty starting, Community-Sonne developers are increasingly focusing on alternative distributed solar programs such as paths for long-term growth.
“Non-residential distributed solar zon, which usually includes projects that of 2 and 20 MWDC are size, is extremely well positioned for growth,” Subtelly said. “Aunts increasingly appreciate the value of sources on a community scale because they can be used quickly, with storage and close to the customer’s tax.”
Market front views and scenarios
Cumulative Community-Sonne installations currently a total of 9.1 GWDC and will be expected to exceed more than 16 GWDC in 2030. Wood Mackenzie has developed high-quality and low-case scenarios to record the uncertainties of the market:
- High case: An increase of 18% to the prospects of five years due to favorable changes in state policy and efficient reform of interconnection, which adds 1.3 GWDC.
- Low case: A contraction of 16% as a result of complex guidelines for the qualifications of tax credit and limited state intervention, reducing the outlook by 1.2 GWDC.
Tags: Coalition for community access for community sun, community Solar, Wood Mackenzie
