The installed solar capacity of Brazil is expected to rise from 51.7 GW in December 2024 to 88.2 GW towards the end of 2029, according to the energy processing plan of the National Grid operator 2025-29.
The combined share of utility scale and distributed solar energy in the electricity mix of Brazil is expected to reach 32.9% by the end of 2029, an increase of 22.2% in December 2024.
The installed solar capacity is expected to rise from 51.7 GW to 88.2 GW during this period. Distributed generation will grow from 35.1 GW to 64.1 GW, while centralized PV capacity on utility scale will increase from 16.6 GW to 24.1 GW.
This growth would make solar energy the second largest source of installed capacity in the National Interconnected System (SIN).
The projection comes from the energy operation plan of 2025-29 that was released this week by the National System Operator (us).
The 2025 plan projects an increase of 36 GW in the total installed capacity, which grows from 232 GW in December 2024 to 268 GW towards the end of the prediction period. The total includes existing and expected micro and mini -distributed generation (MMGD).
The demand for energy is expected to grow by an average annual percentage of 3.4%, up to 94.6 GW by 2029. This figure includes the tax contribution of MMGD.
São Paulo will lead MMGD extension with 5 GW expected during the study period. Minas Gerais follows with 2.6 GW, then Rio de Janeiro with 2.1 GW, Paraná with 1.8 GW, Goiás with 1.7 GW, Rio Grande do Sul with 1.6 GW, Ceará with 1.2 GW and Pará and Mato Grosso with 1.1 GW each.
The Sin Electricity Matrix will continue to show a high part of the inflexible generation, which is expected to be good for 75% of the total load in 2026 and 73% in 2029.
The storage capacity of the sin pump remains approximately 292 GW/month. However, the degree of regularization is expected to decrease, which increases the dependence on rainfall to refill the reservoirs of each hydrological year. Storage levels at the end of the rainy season in April will become increasingly critical to meet the tax.
Given the high share of inflexible generation and growing need for rapid response sources, we advised us to add thermal capacity with high inflexibility or slow disaster-up times in the next five years.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to work with us and reuse part of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
