Brief restrictions in Brazil In the first half of 2025, investments can be made and to emphasize grid and transmission limits, with analysts called for more clearer prices and storage solutions.
In the limitation of renewable generation, perhaps the biggest challenge with which the sector of Brazilian renewable energy has ever been confronted, according to Rodrigo Sauaia, president of the Brazilian photovoltaic solar energy association (absolar). Although generally recognized, the problem is deteriorating as the share of renewable sources in Brazilian electricity grid grows.
Figures from the National System Operator (us) show that cutbacks on the generation of solar energy in 2025 were proportionally higher than the same months in 2024. In August, 20% of the potential solar output was limited, compared to 12% in August 2024.
Our records include cuts due to external unavailability, compliance with reliability, energy restrictions and access restrictions. From January to August 2025 on average 13.7% of real -time availability was limited, compared to 9.7% from April to December 2024.
Despite the rising disability, our statistics can underestimate the impact on generators, Sauaia said.
Financial impact
“Of the total BRL 1.7 billion ($ 315.4 million) in sector losses, only acknowledges us BRL 1.1 billion. Almost half of the effects are invisible,” said Sauaia PV Magazine Brasil on Intersolar 2025.
Ons-methodology ignores periods without solar radiation or wind data and has failures in half an hour of blocks, even if it is caused by several factors.
“The sector is confronted with reduced investments and problems with obtaining financing for new centralized projects,” said Vinicius Nunes, chief analyst at Bloombergnef.
Solar clarification reached 14% in 2024 and 21% in the first half of 2025.
“These cutbacks must be processed in new projects,” said Nunes. “They can be larger than 30%in 2030. This does not prevent new projects, but requires extensive financing.”
Absolar calls for complete compensation for directed generation. Last week, the National Electricity Regulatory Agency (Aneel) associations, banks – including BNDES, BNB, Bradesco, Itaú, Santander, BTG and government agencies to discuss public consultation 45/2019 could determine that a mechanism could share the effects of generation -ducts.
Anel said that “the short -term alternatives would develop to reduce financial problems for sector participants, a concern for financial institutions.” The issue affects both balance sheets and investment decisions.
Operational limits
Compensation would tackle the financial impact, but not the operational causes of limitation.
“About 25% to 30% of the malfunctions are the result of a lack of transmission lines, and another 25% stemes from robustness of the network. Infrastructure is still good for about half the problem,” Sauaia said.
The National Council for Energy Policy has approved the use of synchronous compensators in Onderations to tackle problems with frequency, voltage and power quality. Extra infrastructure investments are needed.
Renata Carvalho, adviser to the Electric Energy Studies Directorate at the Energy Research Company (EPE), noted plans for 15,000 km of transmission lines and synchronous compensators, with investments from BRL 56 billion planned to be online between 2028 and 2030.
“The margins in the northeast are zero, access requests are often refused and limitations rise,” said Carvalho at the Intersolar Congress. Studies are underway to expand the transmission capacity and to revise guidelines after the Black -Outs of November 2023.
Carrier solutions
Generation -Mermatches with consumption are increasing malfunctions. New price structures, combined with storage, can reduce the problem.
“We need clearer price signals. Cheaper energy during the day and adequate infrastructure would encourage consumers to shift the demand. Industries can adjust processes, farmers can irrigate or put in the fridge, and households can use or store energy during cheap periods,” said Sauaia.
The aggregating large loads can also reduce the power limitations, Carvalho added. In the northeast alone, 18 green hydrogen projects can add 23 GW to capacity by 2030 and 44.3 GW by 2038. Projects for data centers can require 3 GW, compete with the production of hydrogen-to-vehicles for access to grid.
Other solutions include market mechanisms such as negative prices and limitation auctions, greater flexibility in Hydro shipping, increased storage for solar and distributed generation and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems with electric cars that act as batteries, said Volt Robotics CEO Filho.
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