Chinese customs data shows an increase in March as buyers rushed their shipments ahead of April’s tax rebate change.
China’s exports of solar panels rose sharply in March, with customs data showing one of the strongest monthly shipment increases in recent years.
According to data cited by Reuters According to China Customs, solar panel exports reached a record high in March 2026, rising 125% month-on-month and 67% year-on-year in value to $3.61 billion. Reuters attributed the spike to a combination of factors, including the upcoming end of China’s PV export tax credits on April 1, stronger demand from Southeast Asia and Africa, and temporarily lower silver prices that eased production costs.
InfoLink senior analyst Amy Fang shared pv magazine that China exported about 37.32 GW of PV modules in March, up from 16.75 GW in February, an increase of about 123%, and about 60% more than 23.38 GW a year earlier. For the first quarter, she estimated total module exports at 71.42 GW, up about 15% from 61.89 GW in the same period of 2025.
Fang said the March figures “clearly reflect the concentrated shipments ahead of the April policy change,” with both modules and cells showing strong growth. She added that the regional distribution also changed, with Asia and the Pacific importing around 13.82 GW in March, or 37% of total exports, overtaking Europe for the first time. Europe accounted for about 13.05 GW, or 35%, while the Americas and Africa received about 4.4 GW each. The Middle East lagged behind with approximately 1.62 GW.
Fang noted that the regional divide suggests the March increase was not driven by a broad acceleration in final demand, but rather the anticipation of the policy change. According to her, exports were mainly supported by Europe and Asia-Pacific, while Africa emerged as a notable incremental growth market. She added that attention is now shifting to whether second-quarter demand can absorb early shipments, with the focus shifting from “urgent exports” to price dynamics, cost pass-through and inventory handling.
This interpretation is in line with the broader market background. China announced in January that it would eliminate VAT export rebates for PV products from April 1, 2026, a change widely expected to lead to early deliveries in the first quarter.
A note of caution came from S&P Global analyst Jessica Jin, who said the March export surge was closely linked to the removal of rebates and improved supplier margins due to lower silver prices, but cautioned that export volumes do not necessarily reflect ultimate downstream demand.
She added that some shipments may have been sent to overseas manufacturing bases or transit centers rather than direct end markets.
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