In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
Chinese TOPCon cell prices have fallen this week due to weaker trade interest in the export market and ongoing renegotiations of existing India-linked contracts due to the country’s recently announced anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar cells.
According to the OPIS Solar Weekly Report published on November 4, FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices were assessed 1.22% lower at $0.0405/W, with price guidance between $0.0400-0.0414/W.
India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies in October recommended company-specific anti-dumping duties of up to 30% on the cost insurance and freight value (CIF) of Chinese solar cell imports for three years. The measure will come into effect as soon as it has been officially announced by the central government.
Chinese cell makers report that Indian buyers are renegotiating contracts as there is uncertainty over who will bear the cost of anti-dumping tariffs if the new duties are imposed while the goods are still in transit.
However, several market participants pointed out that Chinese-made cells are expected to remain significantly cheaper than Indian-made cells even after the new duties are imposed, with discounts potentially exceeding 50% according to some market indications.
Trade sources added that Indian buyers could focus on imports from Southeast Asia. Others familiar with the matter noted that cells of Chinese origin have already been transshipped through Southeast Asian ports, mainly to obtain new certificates of origin before eventually entering India.
Recent data from Ember supports this trend. Chinese cell exports to Indonesia averaged about 340 MW per month in 2024, but rose to almost 2.5 GW in September. Exports to the Philippines averaged around 19 MW per month, reaching a year-to-date high of 318 MW in September.
Meanwhile, under certain government schemes in India, projects must comply with the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR), which mandates the use of modules built with Indian-made cells. Market indications show that DCR modules are trading at around INR 24.5 ($0.28)/W, while non-DCR TOPCon modules – mostly with Chinese-made cells – are priced around INR 13.5 ($0.15)/W.
According to market sources, the price difference observed before the imposition of the anti-dumping duty is largely due to the premium on Indian-made cells and higher production costs for DCR modules. Limited availability of Indian-made cells has also added upward pressure on DCR module prices.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), most wafer producers in China’s upstream segment continue to show strong price support sentiment, while polysilicon prices are stable. However, soft demand has led downstream cell and module manufacturers to reduce new purchases and prioritize existing inventories.
As end-market demand enters the seasonally low period, purchasing momentum is expected to remain weak and the wafer market will continue to face oversupply pressure, CNIA said. That said, a number of waffle makers plan to cut business rates from November, which could gradually improve the balance between supply and demand, the industry body added.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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