In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
Waffle prices continued to fall, marking a fourth straight week of declines and highlighting manufacturers’ increasing reliance on price concessions to boost sales and ease mounting inventory and cash flow pressures, market participants said.
Free-On-Board (FOB) prices in China for n-type M10 and n-type G12 wafers fell 2.38% and 4.98% week on week, to $0.164/pc and $0.191/pc, respectively, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report published on February 16.
According to market sources, the broader wafer market environment remains subdued and largely passive, characterized by weak trading activity and continued inventory accumulation. The seasonal slowdown in the photovoltaic market has directly weakened downstream demand for upstream production materials, while higher production costs at the downstream level have further limited buyers’ ability to absorb current wafer prices.
According to industry feedback last week, business rates at major waffle producers have fallen below 50%. Even specialty wafer manufacturers, which traditionally maintained utilization rates of up to 80%, have seen their operating rates fall below 70%. One market observer noted that the broad reduction in business rates indicates that prices have fallen to levels that are no longer economically sustainable for manufacturers.
Nevertheless, some market participants indicated that downstream operating rates are likely to recover after the Lunar New Year, as some cell and module producers still have outstanding orders to fill. This could lead to a modest recovery in waffle purchasing volumes after the holidays. However, a trade source warned that the potential impact on prices could be limited as current wafer inventories are estimated at around 25 GW.
The financial pressure on wafer manufacturers remains significant. This is highlighted by the January 2026 edition of the mainstream photovoltaic product cost analysis recently released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. The estimate placed the full production cost of n-type G12R wafers including tax at CNY 1.945 ($0.28)/pc in January 2026. In contrast, according to industry sources, the prevailing domestic transaction price for this wafer specification in China is currently around CNY 1.2–1.3/pc, indicating significant margin compression.
One market participant noted that while the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) price reference serves as more of a guideline than a binding standard, it can nevertheless influence market sentiment. In particular, it could provide psychological price support, potentially slowing the pace of declines and contributing to near-term stabilization.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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