Israel’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has presented three scenarios for its 2050 green targets, which will change in line with developments in solar, hydrogen and nuclear energy production. In the most solar-oriented scenario, the country would have a PV capacity of 108 GW.
Israel’s Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has published a roadmap for net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050, relying heavily on solar energy.
The plan foresees three scenarios to achieve the goal, depending on potential technology and policy developments. In the first case, solar energy becomes even cheaper and more efficient. In the second case, hydrogen technology matures. And in the third case, the state allows the operation of nuclear power plants.
“According to our model, electricity demand is expected to grow to approximately 19.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per year (approximately 220 TWh) by the year 2050, more than three times current electricity demand,” it said ministry. in a statement. “This increase in electricity demand will accelerate in the coming years due to the electrification of transport and industry. In addition, total energy demand is expected to be one and a half times greater by 2050.”
Under the solar plan, which the paper calls “the yellow scenario,” 64% of Israel’s energy demand would be supplied by PV installations by 2050. In this scenario, the country would have a solar capacity of 108 GW and a four-hour storage capacity of 70 GW. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) would be $91.5/MWh.
“This scenario uses high amounts of solar energy, based on the assumption that the solar and storage fields will undergo technological developments that will reduce their price and increase their efficiency,” the ministry explains. “Moreover, it is based on the adoption of a technical solution for the integration of PV energy into the electricity grid, and the promotion of further solutions, such as floating PV (FPV) and agrivoltaic solar energy.”
The second scenario, which the ministry calls ‘the blue solution’, envisions carbon capture and storage (CCS) and natural gas-based hydrogen production accounting for 30% of energy sources, while PV accounts for 45% and imports for 30%. %. 25%. In that case, electricity production would be based on 56% PV, 38% hydrogen and 6% import. That scenario includes 75 GW of solar plants, four-hour storage of 34 GW and an LCOE of $105.6/MWh. “This scenario requires major infrastructure investments, which are only possible if hydrogen production becomes more efficient and economically viable.”
The final scenario, ‘the red scenario’, is based on the introduction of nuclear energy into the Israeli electricity grid. In this case, of all energy sources, solar energy would account for 55%, nuclear energy 19% and imports 26%. Solar energy would account for 57% of electricity production, hydrogen and nuclear energy would each account for 19%. It would require 80 GW of solar power plants and a storage capacity of 50 GW for four hours. In this case, the LCOE is expected to be $96.50/MWh.
“This scenario is based on the assumption that Israel will have two large nuclear power plants by 2050, or a few smaller ones,” the ministry said. “This scenario depends on technical developments in modular nuclear reactors, international policy issues and deep public debate on the implementation of such technology.”
Israel has committed internationally to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050. Still, the ministry emphasizes that a net-zero emissions law is being pushed in the local parliament. The roadmap will now go through a public hearing before the government can approve it.
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