In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China, was valued this week at $18,319/kg, or $0.038/W, up 0.28% on a weekly basis.
Global polysilicon prices rose slightly this week, supported by reports of rising spot order prices. Market participants attributed some of this increase to customers seeking secure sources of supply in response to ongoing uncertainties surrounding the U.S. Section 232 national security investigation into polysilicon and the Foreign Enty of Concern (FEOC) policy efforts.
In this policy environment, several participants noted that U.S. solar polysilicon capacity has increased due to the restart of previously idled facilities. Some also expect further capacity growth, either through new project expansions or by adjusting the production ratio between electronic-grade polysilicon and solar-grade polysilicon. The source added that depending on the potential outcome of the Section 232 investigation, there could be strong financial incentives for stakeholders to maximize U.S. solar polysilicon production.
However, one manufacturer cautioned that because electricity consumption for the production of electronic-grade polysilicon is significantly higher than for solar polysilicon, differences in energy costs between production bases should be carefully evaluated.
The source further explained that if the Section 232 investigation results in limited duty-free quotas for imported polysilicon – and as China’s domestic electronic-grade production accelerates, reducing foreign purchases – the reallocation of U.S. polysilicon production capacity to solar material would be a natural and expected development.
Meanwhile, a new polysilicon production project in the Middle East has yet to get underway, with some suggesting the start could be delayed until January next year. The source added that the outcome of the Section 232 investigation will determine whether the plant’s products can enter the U.S. market or must instead compete in China.
According to Roth Capital, while previous expectations point to a release of the Section 232 investigation results in November, recent checks indicate the timeline may be pushed back to January 2026.
The China Mono Premium – OPIS’ rating for mono-grade polysilicon used in the production of N-type ingots – remained stable this week at CNY 52,200 ($7.34)/kg, or CNY 0.110/W.
The price has held steady since late September and is 46% above its year-to-date low in July.
The Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has revised its forecast for China’s polysilicon production in November to less than 120,000 tonnes from 125,000 to 130,000 tonnes. One market participant attributed this to a significant production reduction at the plant of a major manufacturer in Southwest China due to rising electricity costs, in addition to routine maintenance at some production bases of a leading granular polysilicon reactor (FBR) manufacturer.
Progress on the long-awaited polysilicon consolidation plan has yet to be officially announced. An industry insider revealed that the share allocation negotiations were challenging as results vary depending on the criteria applied – such as nominal capacity, effective operating capacity or actual production levels.
Another source agreed, noting that while all participants face some financial pressures, most still have access to reserve funds or external financing, allowing them to pursue higher ownership stakes. The source expects that securing a stronger position in the consortium will be of strategic importance if future capacity expansion comes under stricter government supervision.
One market observer noted that while progress has been gradual, polysilicon overcapacity is being slowly addressed, and it will take time to process the significant inventories built up over the past two years. The observer expects a visible contraction in polysilicon production capacity next year, with annual average prices likely to stabilize around the high CNY50/kg.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired price data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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