Prices for solar panels with tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) continue to fall. Martin Schachinger, founder of pvXchange.com, explains how this will affect sales of passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) PV modules.
There is little movement this month in the price of solar panels in the low-power class. However, there was a significant price adjustment for modules with an efficiency level above 22%.
The prices of these modules, which are now mainly equipped with n-type/TOPCon cells and double glazing, are increasingly in line with those of regular modules. There are only upward outliers for some types with interdigitated back-contact (IBC) or heterojunction (HJT) technology, which are not considered separately in this analysis.
Production volumes in China for n-type cells and modules appear to have increased, but the new customs situation in the United States may already be having an impact. The question is: what will this do to the European market? Ever lower prices would mean that demand would continue to rise if it weren’t for a number of disruptive factors.
There are still larger stocks of modules produced in 2023 or earlier by distributors, but also by installers themselves. However, if these are 2 m² in size, they sell poorly due to their low performance. Building owners typically want to see high performance and the latest technology installed in new systems, making it much harder for existing goods to sell.
Despite the expected reduction in module production and import volumes, more Asian modules are still reaching the European market than is currently in demand. This causes inventories to increase, even for high-performance models, putting additional pressure on module prices.
Stocks of old modules, which were produced and purchased at significantly higher prices in the past, must therefore be continuously devalued. However, this is not possible for all players, resulting in very different prices for modules with PERC technology on the market. Overall, the price difference between these categories is becoming smaller.
Africa and Southeast Asia are also likely to become oversaturated with modules and Chinese products cannot be sold in the US market. One strategy that is becoming increasingly popular is to accommodate the soft factors of the commercial sector, i.e. payment and delivery terms. Instead of offering modules at lower prices, lines of credit are extended – often without requiring collateral – and promises of free delivery. However, it is doubtful whether this tactic will work in the long run. Many smaller companies in particular are on the brink of collapse and impending defaults cannot be ruled out.
Some suppliers also turn to online marketplaces, where they try to sell their inventory goods quickly to international customers without incurring sales and marketing costs. But there too, competitive pressure is high and such goods can often only be sold at dumping prices. The other problem is that there is hardly any way to get to know the potential business partner in advance; you gotta take what you get.
Misunderstandings can arise in business transactions, especially across national borders, and online platform operators are not always available to provide support and advice. The efforts involved in running an online business are quickly becoming greater than buying or selling within an established business relationship.
My preference for using redundant older modules is clear: installing them in larger open space or roof systems. Especially in areas with higher wind or snow loads, the often smaller sizes are not a bad choice. Material and assembly costs increase slightly in favor of better statics, but the easier operation compensates for the disadvantage.
And there is another undeniable advantage: the modules are already in stock and therefore guaranteed available. This means that no delivery problems and therefore delays in the construction process can occur. You may also find some unsold inverters and cable reels, and then the components for your PV system are almost complete.
Once a system is built and connected to a network, it is no longer of interest to anyone whether the modules are of the latest generation or not. In any case, the resulting assets can be sold.
Image: pvXchange.com
About the author: Martin Schachinger studied electrical engineering and has been active in the field of photovoltaics and renewable energy for almost 30 years. In 2004, he founded a company and founded the online trading platform pvXchange.com. The company has standard components in stock for new installations and solar panels and inverters that are no longer produced.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the author pv magazine.
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