The global solar module industry is expected to win back a sustainable balance in the coming six months, told Yana Hryshko, head of Solar Supply Chain Research for Wood Mackenzie, said PV -Magazine. She explains why the prices of solar module can rise soon, which suggests that the prices of Tier 1 modules can reach $ 0.14- $ 0.15/W by the end of this year and discusses how consolidation occurs within the global PV -industry.
The prices of solar module are expected to rise considerably compared to the current levels in the coming six months, according to Yana Hryshko, head of Solar Supply Chain Research for Wood Mackenzie.
“The prices should rise because the Chinese solar industry is going to do everything to make this happen,” she said PV -Magazine. “We may see perhaps up to 300 GW waffle, cell and module capacity will soon be swept out of the market, usually from non-tier 1 manufacturers. And unlike Tier 1 producers, nobody will try to save them. “Manufacturers of pure cells and wafers without electricity module production and module manufacturers with outdated technologies, such as PERC and low-efficiency Topcon, are likely to be influenced.
Hryshko is of the opinion that the expected wave of insolvency would mainly influence Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers, which can re -balance the market and help bridge the gap between supply and demand.
“Perhaps many of the affected manufacturers will not go bankrupt, but simply reuse their facilities for other sectors,” she said, and noticed that the prices of polysilicon are already rising, with the waffle and the cell prices that are expected to follow. “On the other hand, Tier 1 producers have not reduced their capacity, but have limited their production output since December when they agreed to the self-discipline agreement imposed by the Chinese government. The agreement provides for approximately 650 GW production for this year, which would be sufficient to meet a global PV question, ranging between 600 GW and 700 GW. “
According to data from Wood Mackenzie, the global current production capacity of the operational module is 1,491 TW, of which 1,188 TW in China. Hryshko explained that this operational limit in China will create a shortage of artificial module.
“What the Chinese government does in this respect is having an effect,” she said, and explains that the newly released production guidelines of the PV industry will also contribute to consolidating the production landscape in China. “If you read between the lines, these guidelines are designed to support the largest manufacturer, as if you are not efficient enough and you have outdated technology, you cannot build new capacity.”
Hryshko also notes that the majority of all recently announced production capacities in China are for heterojunction (HJT) or back-contact technologies. “There were so far no announcement of new Topcon facilities this year, while Perc will be phased out at the end of 2025, or even earlier,,” she said. “The technological transition happens much faster than everyone had expected.”
Hryshko expects the prices of high-quality Tier 1-Zonne modules to be larger than $ 0.12/W soon. “This means that the prices of modules will at least match the production costs for the first time in months,” she emphasizes. “And this should happen within six months. For a while, however, we will still see many cheap modules of low quality on the market, but at some point it will stop. On the other hand, we must understand that cell suppliers, wafer suppliers and polysilicium suppliers have all lost money. Especially those who are also sellers of solar cells and wafer. Now they want the money they have lost and it is not like the buyers have. “
The analyst also explains that the PV industry can return to pre-monitoring levels, with module prices ranging between $ 0.13/W and $ 0.14/W, or even higher “I think the module prices will vary between $ 0, 12/W and $ 0.15/W depending on the technology by the end of 2025, “she concludes.
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