During a pv magazine During the Week Europe 2025 webinar, panelists predict that the market share of back-contact (BC) solar cells will reach the same level as TOPCon by the end of the decade, before the tandem technology gains widespread popularity in the early 2030s.
Back-contact (BC) solar cells are expected to reach the same level as the cost of tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) cells before the end of the decade, an analysis by pv magazine Week Europe 2025.
During a session on solar and cell module technology held as part of pv magazineDuring the live-broadcast virtual conference, industry experts discussed the next steps for PV technology, including BC cells, perovskites and tandem cell products.
Molly Morgan, senior research analyst at CRU, told attendees that based on CRU’s internal efficiency forecast and cost modeling forecast, BC technology must maintain an average efficiency lead of approximately 1.2% or 1.3% over TOPCon to achieve cost per Watt parity.
“We believe BC will reach level and cost parity with TOPCon before the end of the decade,” said Morgan. “Therefore, we believe we could see a coexistence of the two technologies between 2028 and 2030.”
Image: CRU
TOPCon continues to dominate the market, largely due to its low production costs. Morgan said that with TOPCon offering good efficiency metrics, it makes sense that some manufacturers would be reluctant to make the jump to B.C., but added that Many manufacturers still demonstrate BC pilot lines and BC modules on their stands at trade shows and conferences.
“While they are not yet commercially producing their own BC sales and modules, they have begun to lay the groundwork and be ready to initiate a transition from standard TOPCon to a BC TOPCon design when market conditions are less challenging, which we see happening in that sort of 2028 earliest timeframe,” Morgan explains.
CRU’s forecast adds that heterojunction cells may struggle to gain meaningful market share away from TOPCon due to higher production costs unless the technology can achieve a meaningful efficiency lead over TOPCon. “The efficiency edge that we think this will require is one that we don’t think will average across the technology category as a whole,” Morgan added.
CRU’s analysis expects tandem technologies to gain widespread traction from 2030 and beyond. “This is driven by the market’s desire for higher efficiencies that can only be achieved by tandem devices,” Morgan explains.
Perovskite-silicon tandems offer the potential to unlock higher efficiency potential, with reports of already 30% efficiency at the module level. Ed Crossland, chief technology officer at Oxford PV, told attendees that the company sees the ceiling for tandem perovskite-silicon technology at the module level at 35% plus.
“Our current product is a 25% module level product and is now showing 2% field level degradation. By 2027 we will see 27% of the module level with 1% or lower field level degradation,” he added. “And I think this is the really exciting level where we see a completely obvious choice for perovskite-silicon tandem in many more deployment scenarios than is currently the case.”
Radovan Kopecek, director of ISC Konstanz, added that while he expects BC to drive the energy transition, the time of tandem technology will also come.
“If you look at Molly’s graph and understand what the production is going to be at that point, we’re talking about 2 TW, 3 TW production,” he said. “I don’t think that until then that tandem will become so profitable that everyone will roll out the technology towards TW. Of course there will be several GW, that’s for sure.”
Kopecek added that tandems with three terminals could also be one of the future solutions.
“I think Oxford PV could also move to that very quickly if, let’s say, the integration of the cells is solved. And we have a number of patent applications for that to connect BC devices with perovskite directly to the silicon,” he added. “The development will show whether it will be a two-terminal, three-terminal, four-terminal. It is clear, because then we can really go beyond the 30% efficiency.”
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