Saudi researchers outlined opportunities for Saudi Arabia to achieve net-zero emissions from its energy sector by 2060, requiring up to 3.6% of the land – mainly for onshore wind – while 151.3 GW of solar power covers just 0.16% of the land.
A group of researchers from Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) have outlined a potential path for the kingdom to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060, concluding that the required efforts could lead to the occupation of about 3.6% of Saudi land, especially in the northeastern region.
“Under the high-demand net-zero scenario we modeled for 2060, the total land footprint equates to approximately 77,278 km2 and approximately 515.3 GW of installed renewable capacity, mainly from onshore wind, solar and concentrated solar power (CSP),” the study’s corresponding author, Sarah Abuouf, said pv magazine. “Most of this area is associated with onshore wind energy. According to our assumptions, wind energy provides a large part of the capacity and requires more land per megawatt than other technologies, and therefore it accounts for approximately 94% of the total land requirement.”
Solar PV, on the other hand, turned out to have a much smaller footprint. “About 151.3 GW of PV would require about 3,519 km2, as solar energy can install significantly more capacity per unit of land compared to wind energy,” Abuouf added, noting that solar energy would cover only 0.16% of total Saudi land by 2060.
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The researchers explained that their modeling, in terms of location, places most wind development in the northeastern parts of the Kingdom, while solar energy is mainly concentrated in the western and eastern regions. “We would also like to emphasize that these are model-based estimates developed for analytical purposes,” Abuouf emphasized. “They are not government plans, commitments or official commitments, but rather illustrative results to help understand potential long-term infrastructure needs under a net-zero trajectory.”
In the study “Achieving net zero in Saudi Arabia’s energy sector by 2060, taking into account land and mineral availability”, published in Energythe academics said their work consisted of assessing the technical, land and material feasibility of achieving net zero in Saudi Arabia’s energy sector by 2060. In particular, they analyzed electricity demand forecasting, planning for the expansion of generation and transmission capacity, land needs and materials and mineral needs.
Two main scenarios were analyzed: zero-emission energy (ZEP), which assumes the sector produces no gross emissions by 2060, and net-zero emissions energy (NZEP), which allows for residual emissions offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). These scenarios were evaluated under two demand paths: a reference scenario (RefDem) and a high electrification scenario (HiDem), which affect both peak load and overall generation requirements.
In all pathways, onshore wind dominates the installed capacity, while solar PV and concentrated solar energy (CSP) contribute a smaller share. Battery storage and hydrogen technologies play a crucial role in ensuring robust capacity and system reliability. Some gas generation remains online as a backup, and fuel cells are mainly deployed in scenarios with strict zero emissions targets.
The scientists explained that the energy transition in Saudy also poses challenges in crucial minerals, with rare earth metals needed for wind turbines, as well as copper for solar energy and batteries, which will ultimately lead to supply constraints, especially in the 2030s and 2050s. However, these challenges can be mitigated through careful selection of sub-technologies, material-efficient designs and substitution strategies, they also stated.
From a cost perspective, their analysis showed that ZEP routes involve substantial investments, with generation infrastructure accounting for most of the increase. The analysis also highlights that allowing certain emissions and relying on CDR, as in the NZEP scenarios, significantly reduces system costs, while still achieving net zero targets.
“Overall, our findings underline the importance of adopting a holistic approach to decarbonizing the energy sector by integrating techno-economic optimization with considerations of materials and land constraints,” the academics concluded. “As Saudi Arabia makes progress toward its net-zero goals, proactive energy sector planning, strategic selection of renewable technologies to reduce dependence on critical minerals, and effective land management will be essential for policymakers to better manage trade-offs, reduce risks, and increase the resilience of the energy transition.”
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