With the Republican White House, Senate and House of Representatives up for grabs, core policies for the solar industry may be repealed.
Republicans have won political victories, electing President Donald Trump, securing the Senate and potentially gaining a majority in the House of Representatives.
While the DOW Jones industrial average rose 3% to record highs in the post-Election Day trading session, solar and clean energy stocks have fallen heavily.
At the time of writing, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is down 11%, major US manufacturer First Solar is down 12%, inverter makers Enphase and SolarEdge are down about 19%, residential solar installer Sunrun is down 26%, and its competitor Sunnova has crashed more than 40%. Nextracker, manufacturer of large-scale solar trackers, is down about 6.5%, while its rival Array Technologies is down almost 20%.
Stock prices have fallen in response to the possibility of repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, including core elements of the policy such as the 30% investment tax credit.
Although analysts have argued that the IRA is unlikely to be completely destroyed because it has created jobs and investment mainly in red states, the Trump administration has pushed back against industrial policy.
The Trump administration said it would “end Kamala Harris’ Green New Scam and withdraw all unused funds.”
The IRA’s disproportionate investments in historically Republican states are likely to influence elected conservatives to fight to preserve core elements of clean energy policies and incentives. However, the Trump administration could opt for a “surgical” approach, cutting key funding for battery and electric vehicle production, offshore wind energy and other zero-emission technologies.
Another core clean energy policy under threat is the Department of Energy’s Loans Program Office (LPO), which expired this year $130 billion in available lending authority dedicated to clean energy technologies.
Many clean energy companies rely on DOE LPO support. For example, Sunnova’s Project Hestia, a solar energy program for low-income homes, received a $3 billion partial loan guarantee.
Project 2025, a document created by the Heritage Foundation and a guiding playbook for the Trump administration, plans to “eliminate DOE’s borrowing authority through Congress and ultimately eliminate the Loan Programs Office.”
Across party lines, it is clear that American voters support solar and clean energy production. Nearly 9 in 10 (87%) of U.S. voters surveyed support federal tax credits for clean energy in the Inflation Reduction Act, including 78% of Trump voters.
Despite today’s market-wide crash, solar industry leaders have remained optimistic that the technological and cost benefits of solar and energy storage will continue to support the energy transition.
“The march toward renewable clean energy is both inevitable and the right thing to do. It will happen no matter who is in the White House or Congress. It may slow down or speed up, but it will continue.” said JD Dillon, chief marketing officer of Tigo Energy, manufacturer of solar energy components.
In the first half of 2024, solar represented 67% of all new electricity generation capacity added to the U.S. grid in the first half of 2024. More than $100 billion in investments have been announced in clean energy production, the vast majority of which has been realized. in Republican congressional districts.
E2 reports that $106 billion in investments in clean energy production have been announced in Republican districts, which will create an estimated 73,515 jobs. This pales in comparison to the $18 billion announced in Democratic congressional districts, which will create just under 30,000 jobs. Despite the anti-investment sentiments for clean energy expressed by the Trump administration, members of the Republican Congress may fight to maintain IRA policies in their districts to support jobs and investment.
“Domestic solar energy production has quadrupled under pro-business federal clean energy policies, and soon we will have enough American-made solar panels to meet our solar energy demand,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), in a statement released after Trump’s victory. “Nearly 9 in 10 Americans support this policy, which will boost communities in states like Ohio, Texas, Georgia and South Carolina with thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in investment.”
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