Solar installations grew 4% year-on-year in the European Union in 2024, a sharp decline from 53% growth in 2023. The slowdown coincides with a decline in solar investment energy, which is the first decline in this decade. SolarPower Europe now predicts annual growth of 3% to 7% in solar installations between 2025 and 2028.
According to the SolarPower Europe report, developers will have deployed 65.5 GW of solar energy across the European Union by 2024.EU solar market outlook 2024-2028.”
The figure reflects annual growth of 4% compared to the 62.8 GW of installations in 2023, a sharp decline from the 53% growth between 2022 and 2023. The European solar fleet now stands at 338 GW, a fourfold increase compared to 82 GW ten years ago.
SolarPower Europe attributed the slowdown to factors beyond falling prices for solar components and lower upfront costs for installations. Utility-scale ground-mounted solar projects saw an average cost savings of 28% by 2024.
Despite lower capital costs, solar investment in the EU has fallen for the first time this decade, from €63 billion in 2023 to €55 billion in 2024.
Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe, called the report a warning for European policymakers and system operators.
“Slowing down solar deployment means delaying the continent’s energy security, competitiveness and climate goals,” said Hemetsberger. “Europe needs to install around 70 GW annually to meet its 2030 targets. Corrective action is needed now, before it is too late.”
SolarPower Europe’s forecast for the period 2025 to 2028 suggests that growth will stabilize between 3% and 7% in the coming years.
The market is expected to add 70 GW by 2025, reflecting 7% growth fueled by utility-scale projects initiated over the past two years that have benefited from record low module prices. Growth rates are expected to decline to 3% by 2026, with 72.3 GW of new solar capacity, as developers respond to grid constraints and market uncertainties.
SolarPower Europe’s mid-range scenario predicts a 6% improvement to 76.5 GW in 2027 and a 7% increase to 81.5 GW in 2028.
“This slower growth reflects serious structural challenges, especially in those Member States where adjustments to policy frameworks and infrastructure lag behind those of solar energy The rapid evolution of the sector into a remarkable pillar of energy supply,” the report said. “It also remains to be seen what the changing political landscape to the right means for solar energy in the EU.”
Slow electrification rates continue to stifle demand in the solar market, with the continent’s electrification rate stuck at 23% over the past five years, leaving much of the energy system dependent on fossil fuels. SolarPower Europe noted that the Electrification Alliance is pushing for a 35% electrification rate by 2030.
The report also highlights a lack of energy system flexibility, which has led to the curtailment of solar energy and negative prices, undermining Europe’s energy security and competitiveness as additional factors contributing to the slowdown.
Residential solar installations fell sharply in 2024, with 5 GW of new residential solar added, compared to 12.8 GW last year. SolarPower Europe attributes this decline to the diminishing impact of the energy crisis and predicts that this trend will continue in the coming years.
According to the report, larger solar installations are likely to grow faster than rooftop projects in the EU in the second half of this decade. However, starting on a larger base, rooftop installations are expected to retain a greater share of the EU’s total solar capacity compared to utility-scale projects over the next decade.
At a national level, SolarPower Europe found that five of the EU’s ten largest solar markets – Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Austria and Hungary – installed less solar in 2024 than in 2023. Meanwhile, Germany, Italy, France, Greece and Poland saw a modest gain, with most adding about 1 GW more than last year.
Between 2025 and 2028, Germany, Spain and Italy are expected to lead the growth of the EU solar market.
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