Solar PV is currently evolving as the main energy source. Many energy system models still do not take into account technologies that are already standard in today’s solar energy market. This article calls on energy system modelers to better reflect real-world developments in scenarios aimed at providing a perspective on the energy transition, by offering important research work by LUT University researchers as food for thought.
Solar PV on the roof has been used central to the global energy transition since its origins, starting with Charles Fritts’ rooftop Selenium cell in New York in 1883. The modern era began in the 1940s, when Bell Labs developed the first silicon-based PV cell, leading to niche uses in space and off-grid projects. In the 1980s, California built the first MW-scale factories, while Swiss engineer Markus Real promoted small, decentralized roof systems. This led to the current boom and the rise of solar energy as a central pillar enable a sustainable future in 100% renewable energy systems Unpleasant pooling our productivity to create a sustainable global civilization. Currently, PV on the roof is good for approximately 40% of annual installations and is expected to hold market share of approximately 25% in the mid-2030scompared to more than 90% in 2015. Less than half includes storage, but the falling costs of PV and batteries are driving self-consumption. The importance of rooftop solar PV and prosumerism has been reflected by researchers at LUT University by publishing several articles on this topic for a deeper understanding of the dynamics and drivers of solar PV prosumers, detailing insights from previous studies. grid parity analyses that paved the way for the insights of today’s PV prosumers constant underestimation in the general international energy debate and the excellent cost development:
“Cost-optimal self-consumption of PV prosumers with stationary batteries, heat pumps, thermal energy storage and electric vehicles around the world until 2050” is a first global contribution to the optimization of the self-consumption of residential solar PV prosumers. The study presents insights beyond solar PV battery systems, including microsector coupling of power, heat and transport within the residential prosumer system. The authors conclude that maximizing self-consumption is the most economical in every region of the world, allowing a high degree of coverage of energy and heat demand. Self-consumption ratios, despite maximization efforts, only reach around 50% in most regions worldwide, leaving room for further improvement.
In a subsequent study entitled “Seasonal hydrogen storage for residential applications for photovoltaic solar energy on and off the electricity grid: revolutionary solution or niche market for the energy transition until 2050?”the researchers have included seasonal hydrogen storage technology in the improved prosumer model to further increase the self-consumption of the systems. Small-scale hydrogen storage solutions for residential households are technically quite possible and, however, have significant economic disadvantages, as the additional storage system can be a niche market for off-grid solutions, while grid balancing is more feasible for on-grid systems. Nevertheless, the same paradox applies to premium cars, which are sold in large quantities.
In a collaborative article with ETIP-PV entitled “Attractiveness of photovoltaic prosumerism on the European electricity market“The three prosumer PV market segments of residential, commercial and industrial were examined for the representative European markets of Finland, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. All market segments in all countries examined were found to be attractive, with financial payback periods of as little as four years in certain segments. The main factors for the attractiveness are the low capital costs and high self-consumption.
In their latest research “Assessing yield differences: expected versus optimal rooftop photovoltaic systems and implications for prosumer viability“, the researchers improved the consideration of yield modeling for rooftop solar. As a reference point, fixed-tilted, ground-mounted utility-scale PV yield profiles were analyzed and the yield difference of utility-scale solar PV plants with rooftop solar PV was identified. The paper concludes that residential solar PV on roofs shows an average of 18% less yield per year, commercial systems 7% and large solar energy systems on roofs. industrial-scale solar PV systems on roofs 4%. The viability of solar PV prosumers is not compromised, although improved yield inputs increase annual costs by as much as 20%, making it important to consider rooftop solar PV and prosumers in the modeling of the transition of energy systems.
Image: LUT University
Only a handful of energy system transition models distinguish between utility-scale solar PV technology and distributed solar options, while prosumer options are used in only three models: GCMOM/LOAD MATCH, PyPSAAnd LUT-ESTM. If solar energy on roofs is included, the disclosure of basic assumptions about yield differences is not yet state-of-the-art. Therefore, a lack of specific attention to rooftop solar power plants and PV prosumers can be observed. In light of the historically leading and still important role of rooftop solar and its continued importance to homeowners in an increasing number of countries worldwide, researchers and industry must address this gap. Overall, the global annual potential of solar PV on electricity rooftops can be estimated at approximately 27,000 TWh. Depending on future development, this could amount to up to 10% of the total costs global primary energy demand by the end of the century.
Weaknesses in the modeling details for the 21 main energy sourcest century are also present for utility-scale solar PV power plants. A major setback in technology considerations is the non-availability of single-axis horizontal tracking systems (HSAT). Of all energy system models, only three have been identified with HSAT solar PV power plants in recent years: GCMOM/LOAD MATCH, LUT-ESTMand the ANU model, with a recent catch-up: PyPSA. Therefore, the results of all remaining models do not reflect the current trend where HSAT systems cover more than 35% of the global utility-scale solar market as of today. HSAT systems are expected to do this significantly improve the efficiency of energy systems.
However, HSAT can also be optimized. In a detailed investigation of the “Impact of backtracking strategies on the techno-economics of horizontal single-axis tracking of solar photovoltaic power plants“, the researchers from LUT University took a closer look at backtracking. A key result of the study is the finding that standard backtracking, which aims to avoid mutual shadowing of power plant rows at all costs, may not be the most economical option, as the angle of incidence is significantly deteriorated, leading to up to 12% lower LCOE for advanced, smart backtracking strategies, taking into account all yield effects of the power plant.
Image: LUT University
As with HSAT systems, bifacial solar PV technology is not yet reflected as a standard in energy system modeling, despite being technically available since the commercial breakthrough of the 1980s, which has led to market acceleration since early 2020 and is expected to exceed 90% market share by 2025. In the latest study by the LUT researchers “Assessing the Impact of Bifacial Solar Photovoltaics on Future Energy Systems Based on Capacity Density-Optimized Yield Modeling of Power Plants“Detailed modeling of bifacial solar PV for fixed-tilt, HSAT and vertical system setups has shown that bifacial solar PV is not a game changer, but enables further improvement of the overall system, including a global average change in LCOE of -2%. Bifacial solar PV has an exceptional business case as agrivoltaic solar, especially in the form of vertical solar PV, as the electricity production profile without The afternoon peak can support power grids. Moreover, bifacial solar energy is expected to be a lower environmental impact.
Other application cases for solar energy remain to be explored. One open question is the large-scale potential of floating solar energy at sea, which could play a role important role for small island stateswhole archipelago areasbut also as potential upgrade for offshore wind power plants for improving the overall economy. Floating offshore solar PV has been found under the three nuclear ocean energy technologies, complementary offshore wind energy And wave power. Solar PV installations are breaking new records year after year, proving the importance of solar PV for future electricity-based energy systems. The variety and detail of this technology must be reflected in energy system modeling to enable the right policy implications and support industrial developments with highly detailed research. We call on researchers to reflect industrial developments in solar energy by implementing a variety of technologies in energy system modeling.
Authors: Dominik Keiner and Christian Breyer
This article is part of a monthly column from LUT University.
Research at LUT University includes various analyzes related to energy, heat, transport, industry, desalination and negative CO2 emission options. Power-to-X research is a core subject at the university, integrated into the focus areas of Energy, Air, Water and Business and Society. Solar energy plays a key role in all aspects of research.
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