For much of the past two years, the European solar industry has been shaped by a very specific market condition: an abundant oversupply of modules. Global manufacturing expansion, combined with weaker-than-expected demand in certain regions, led to a sustained period of supply consistently exceeding demand. The result was predictable and very beneficial for buyers. Warehouses filled up, spot prices fell almost continuously, and purchasing strategies across Europe began to focus on a single assumption: waiting would almost always lead to better prices.
That logic became embedded not only in trading behavior, but also in project planning. Developers postponed purchasing decisions, EPCs renegotiated supply contracts closer to installation dates, and distributors competed aggressively to move excess inventory. In many cases, delaying purchases became a rational strategy, as each month of delay often translated into incremental cost savings.
But that environment is now starting to change, according to Bart Wansink, CEO of Search4Solar, a Rotterdam platform for solar panels, inverters and batteries. “The market is clearly deviating from the extreme oversupply situation we saw in 2023 and 2024,” he said. pv magazine. “Inventories are shrinking and manufacturers are planning production in a much more disciplined way. The era of unlimited cheap supplies is coming to an end.”
The change is subtle rather than dramatic. The availability of modules in Europe remains healthy and there are no indications of impending shortages. But the days of constantly growing inventories and aggressive spot price competition appear to be passing. After a long period in which distributors often held six to twelve months of inventory, inventory levels are now noticeably tighter.
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This shift is important because it changes the psychology of purchasing. In recent years, many buyers have felt comfortable postponing decisions because they were confident that prices would continue to fall. Today, however, several major purchasing organizations have started securing volumes earlier, especially for large-scale projects due for delivery in late 2026 and 2027. The logic is simple: in a more balanced market, waiting too long could mean losing access to the most attractive prices or product allocations. “For property developers who have become accustomed to waiting until the last possible moment, this could be a significant change.
At the same time, the technology landscape has also been given a new structure. TOPCon modules have now become the dominant choice in most European tenders, effectively replacing PERC as the standard technology for commercial and utility projects. Their combination of higher efficiency, competitive costs and broad support from manufacturers has driven this rapid consolidation. “TOPCon is clearly the mainstream technology today,” he said, “but we are still seeing innovation at the premium end of the market.”
Heterojunction (HJT) modules continue to gain attention in applications where higher yields can justify additional costs, while back-contact (BC) technologies are increasingly appearing in high-end residential and commercial projects where aesthetics and maximum efficiency are important. As a result, purchasing decisions become more nuanced. “It is no longer just about the lowest price per watt,” Wansink emphasizes.
This shift is also visible in the way projects are financed and approved. Where tenders were previously dominated almost exclusively by price considerations, developers and investors are now placing greater emphasis on long-term performance, degradation rates, warranty structures, bankability of manufacturers, ESG compliance and supply chain transparency. On larger projects, these factors are often amplified by lenders, who want more certainty about how assets will perform over the coming decades, and not just at commissioning.
The combined effect, according to Wansink, is a more mature and selective market. The extreme volatility of recent years has forced both buyers and suppliers to reconsider their assumptions. Excessive inventory exposure on the one hand and delayed purchasing on the other both turned out to be risky. As a result, many participants are now trying to balance price optimization with security of supply.
He also explained that, if this contributes to a more stable environment for distributors and manufacturers, it introduces a more difficult question for developers: when is the right time to engage?
Looking ahead, Wansink expects the next six months to bring relative price stability, with the possibility of modest upward pressure rather than further sharp declines. “Global production capacity remains substantial, which should prevent structural shortages,” he said. “But at the same time, more disciplined inventory management across the supply chain is likely to reduce the frequency of deeply discounted spot deals seen over the past two years.”
Whether this marks the start of a longer-term recovery is still uncertain. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that the European solar purchasing landscape is no longer defined by endless oversupply and falling prices. “Instead, it is determined by timing,” Wansink concluded. “And for an industry that has become accustomed to waiting for the next price drop, that could be the most important change of all.”
