New solar deployment in Britain is expected to decline year-on-year by 2024 compared to 2023 as installations remain relatively stable across the residential, commercial rooftop and ground-mounted segments, writes Solar Media analyst Josh Cornes.
The UK solar market is expected to grow by around 1.5 to 2 GW in 2024, similar to 2023 levels, and will continue on a steady upward growth trajectory since the government introduced incentives for investment in the sector has been abolished.
The final 2023 figures compiled by the Solar Media Market Research team estimate solar additions in Britain in 2023 at 1.9 GWpdc, up almost 50% year-on-year compared to 2022.
About 30% of the 1.9 GW deployed in 2023 came from residential rooftop installations, which was a huge boost for the sector and something that was not expected at the beginning of this year. Commercial roofs accounted for 20% of installations in 2023, in what has now become a somewhat stable sub-segment of the market.
Large-scale ground installations saw the greatest growth in 2023 and accounted for almost half of the annual deployed capacity. This increase was partly driven by Contracts for Difference (CfD) rounds AR4 and AR5, which amounted to 360 MW.
Annual solar deployment in the UK is shown in the figure below, which dates back to the ‘start’ of the UK solar industry in 2010, covering the incentive years (2010 to 2017) and – from 2018 – the current combination of installations after the subsidy. and CfD rounds.
Figure 1: The UK solar market is expected to deploy around 1.5-2 GWpdc in 2024, potentially a marginal year-on-year decline compared to the 1.9 GW added in 2023. Installations see relatively stable contributions from the residential, commercial rooftops and ground-mount segments.
Nearly 500MWpdc of new ground-mounted solar farms were completed in the first half of 2024, close to the level of the first half of 2023. Similar volumes could come online in the second half of 2024, but without specific completion deadlines for the end of the year. Investors are likely to see further push-outs into next year.
Commercial rooftop installations are likely to remain flat this year, while the outlook here remains healthy.
Residential usage has been on a downward trend so far in 2024, closer to 2022 levels. This may simply be due to a sharp increase in usage in 2023 due to homeowner retrofit installations, rather than any indication of a long-term delay in demand.
After 2024, the focus will certainly be on the ground installation sector, with an update on the pipeline appearing on Solar Power Portal in the coming weeks. Currently this is around 3GWpdc under construction in the UK, with around two-thirds of this capacity coming from sites of 50MWpdc or more.
All data and analysis shown above are from Solar Media Market Research analysis, which can be accessed here.
