Wood Mackenzie predicts that Australia will arise at its target of 82% renewable generation by 2030 due to delays from the grid connection, insufficient investments and some national governments to scale back their clean energy ambitions.
New analysis of Energy Research Consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes that Australia will achieve 58% renewable energy generation by the end of the decade, more than under the goal of the federal government to increase the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy mix by 2030.
The recently re-re-elected Australian government wants to transfer to a majority-renewable grid with 22 GW of coal-fired power generation by 2030, which is expected to leave the system in the coming decades.
The latest data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) show renewable sources such as Solar, Wind and Battery Energy Storage Systems are already delivers 43% of the electricity mix In the most important grid of the nation.
However, reaching the 82% renewable energy sources of the federal government requires a substantial additional new clean energy generation and storage capacity to come online with the market operator that estimates that the goal of 82% 92 GW requires renewable capacity, Almost double The current installed capacity of approximately 52 GW.
Senior analyst Natalie Thompson from Woodmac said under the current number of progress, the clean energy share of Australia is probably less than 60%towards the end of the decade.
“Our analysis indicates that Australia is currently on its way to achieve only 58% renewable electricity generation by 2030,” she said, adding that federal efforts “may be complicated by movements of some national governments, such as Queensland And the Northern Territory, to withdraw or scale their objectives for renewable energy benefits. “
Thompson said the forecast “the urgent need for Investment And greater coordination at all levels of the government to speed up the energy transition. “
Woodmac estimates that solar capacity for residential, commercial and industrial use will grow from 29 GW in 2025 to 46 GW by 2030.
Distributed energy storage capacity is expected to triple in the same period, while the storage of utilities will be expected to grow six -time towards the end of the decade, rising from 2.5 GW to more than 16 GW by 2030.
Woodmac said that the increase in renewable energy sources on tools is reinforced by the federal government Capacity investment scheme (CIS) who aims to accelerate the development of 9 GW of shipping capacity and 23 GW variable capacity. This builds on the 8.4 GW of solar scale on solar energy, wind and storage capacity added to the schedule between 2021 and 2024.
The analysis company said that there are around 65 GW of projects in the development process, but Thompson said that there will continue to be challenges and that more support is needed to grasp the way for developments to make progress from planning to operational.
“Although more than 65 GW storage projects on Nuts scale are in different stages of development, only 5-10% of the announced projects are likely to close financially,” she said. “Continuous policy support is crucial to overcome the schedule connection and barriers for project planning.”
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