Image: Catherin Kerrs, Unsplash
Xeneta, a Norwegian platform for comparing sea and freight rates, has warned that spot rates for container shipping could rise following the recent re-election of Donald Trump as the next US president.
“Trump has promised blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all US imports and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China,” the company said in a statement. “Data from Xeneta – the maritime and air freight intelligence platform – shows that the last time Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports during the trade war in 2018, freight rates for shipping containers rose by more than 70%.”
Xeneta said companies are rushing imports to avoid higher tariffs, as U.S. importers and exporters brace for rising shipping container rates. The company notes that a repeat of 2018 is unlikely as early sourcing of imports is expected to play a greater role this time.
“Risk management has been a huge element for container shipping professionals in recent months,” said Peter Sand, the company’s chief analyst. pv magazine. “First there was the strike in the American ports on the east coast and the Gulf, and a month later the American presidential elections. With the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election quickly passing, the focus can now turn to implementing the contingency plans that have been put in place for how to manage the transition from the current tariff regime to the next.”
Sand explained that U.S. retailers have been building inventory throughout the year in response to disruptions in the Red Sea, putting importers in a position to act strategically. He noted that there is little evidence of a significant increase in activity at this stage.
“In particular, freight rates for container transport to the US from the Far East/China have increased by $150 per piece [40-foot equivalent unit] to the East Coast, while rates to the West Coast have fallen by the same amount over the past three months,” he added.
Shipping costs have increased significantly in the first half of 2024
Xeneta warned that tariffs imposed by other countries and trading blocs, including the European Union, could drive up prices.
“It is important to monitor shipping container shipping data on backhaul transactions as these could also be affected if a trade war with the US escalates on a broader global level,” the company said.
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