Prices across the solar supply chain remained in bearish territory through the fourth quarter of 2024. Trade and regulatory developments continued to concern the sector and dampen trading activity.
From pv magazine 24/12
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS price benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China, fell from $22,567 ($0.051)/kg on September 3, 2024 to $22,068/kg on November 5, 2024.
The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark for Chinese modules that are FOB (free on board or excluding shipping costs), fell from $0.095/W to $0.087/W over the same period. Price declines were also recorded for modules supplied to Europe and the United States (see charts). The U.S. Department of Commerce’s (DOC) October 1 announcement of its preliminary decision on countervailing duties on solar energy imports from Southeast Asia was undoubtedly the most high-profile development in recent weeks. The ministry said specific manufacturers in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have benefited from subsidy rates ranging from 0.14% to 292.61%.
For unspecified companies, the DOC has set the following subsidy rates per country: 8.25% for Cambodia, 9.13% for Malaysia, 23.06% for Thailand and 2.85% for Vietnam.
All these rates were largely within market expectations. Some industry players felt preliminary rates were slightly lower than they had forecast, but warned it would be premature to see this as a sudden boost to price and trading activity. A new preliminary anti-dumping ruling will follow in early December 2024, which would be a more definitive signal for buyers considering their purchasing volumes.
American production
Meanwhile, policies for domestic solar energy production in the United States continued to appear favorable. In October and November 2024, the Treasury Department clarified that solar ingots and wafers qualify as semiconductor manufacturing, making them eligible for the 25% Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit. The department also released regulations allowing tax deduction claims covered under the 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit, which insiders see as a boon to support new solar production projects in the country.
These positive developments, coupled with the specter of additional import tariffs, were enough to keep the module futures market in slight contango until June 2025 (meaning future prices are expected to be higher than current spot prices). Duty-paid (DPP) tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules in the US market were $0.285/W as of November 5, 2024. For June 2025, the price is $0.297/Wp, according to the OPIS Forward Curve, implying the expectation that market conditions in the United States will improve in the future.
However, the FOB China TOPCon futures market continued to decline slightly, implying expectations that export market conditions are unlikely to improve in the near term. The spot price of FOB China TOPCon modules on November 5, 2024 was $0.087/W, while the June 2025 forward price was $0.086/W, according to the OPIS Forward Curve.
China’s solar industry faces a hostile trade environment abroad and cutthroat price competition at home. In October 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) responded by announcing that it would release an estimate of production costs for photovoltaic modules to encourage manufacturers to avoid below-cost offers in large-scale tenders in the domestic market.
The association calculated the production cost for n-type M10 (182mm x 182mm) bifacial modules, excluding depreciation and taxes on key upstream materials such as polysilicon, wafers and cells, at CNY0.68 ($0.09)/W from October 2024 .
A public tender in the same month had yielded the lowest bids for both positively doped p-type and n-type modules, at CNY 0.66/W.
Manufacturers in China say the CPIA guidelines help provide an implicit price floor for tender offers, even though they are not legally binding. However, they also noted that these guidelines only apply to state-owned procurement and not to export orders.
With Chinese polysilicon prices stabilizing since early October 2024 and module prices on a relentless downward swing, the cost of Chinese Mono Premium (CMP) polysilicon has increased. CMP is the OPIS rating for the unmixed polysilicon used for drawing n-type ingots, measured at Chinese domestic module ex-factory prices. In August 2024, it was 11% of China’s domestic module prices ex-factory, and in November 2024 it rose to 13% per watt.
More regulatory and trade headwinds lie ahead for the global solar industry. New allegations of subsidy from petitioners have prompted the DOC to investigate the “cross-border” supply of silver paste and solar glass in Southeast Asia. The return of Donald Trump as US president, who made raising tariffs a cornerstone of his re-election campaign, also appears to be keeping the solar industry on edge in terms of the chain reaction of intensifying protectionism.
About the author: Hanwei Wuthe editor-in-chief of OPIS, leads the Asia-Pacific team in producing price assessments, proprietary data and news analysis for the solar, carbon, oil and petrochemical markets. His responsibilities include developing pricing methodologies for the energy markets, identifying the latest industry trends and developments, and producing market-driven news and analysis. In recent years he has launched data products for the oil and renewable energy markets, including solar.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the author pv magazine.
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