After a record year in 2024, the American community market delayed in the first half of 2025, with installations that fell 36% on an annual basis, resulting in 437 MWDC of new capacity installed, according to a new report released by Wood Mackenzie In collaboration with the coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA).
Due to the passage of HR1 and related federal policy changes, the cumulative five -year community prospects of Wood Mackenzie fell by 8% compared to the prospects published in Q2 2025. HR1 has fundamentally changed to the long -term market landscape, while growth in adult markets, in particular New York’s Community Solar Program, is an expected 29% national contraction in 2025.
“In general, we expect that the national community capacity installed of the community will contract with an average of 12% annually with an average of 12%,” said Caitlin Connelly, senior analyst and main author of the report. “The final account offers a crucial four -year window for projects that are already under development to come online and secure the investment tax credit (ITC), to support construction in the short term. From mid -2025 there are more than 9 GWDC of community projects in development, with more than 1.4 GWDC known as under construction. “
Credit: Wood Mackenzie
Growth in emerging markets and new markets face challenges
According to the report, the market contraction in the first half of 2025 is mainly powered by steep falls in volumes in New York and in Maine, where the current program was recently refused. Programs in some government markets are close to or on capacity, and various programs in states, including Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey, get stuck in transitions between program -literations.
“The early outcome of the ITC will only contribute to this difficulty in view of the new projects window to secure tax credits is so small,” said Connelly. “The approval of legislation in new markets may add more than 1.1 GWDC until 2030. “
New state markets can bring more capacity for the market, but this year there has been limited success in adopting legislation on solar programs.
“The customer’s question for a community zonne has never been stronger and we see states with historical extensions such as the 3000 MW and Massachusetts of New Jersey 900 MW,” said Jeff Cramer, President and CEO of CCSA. “These clear places show what is possible when policymakers work to unlock capacity. At the same time, this report makes clear the challenges – from federal uncertainty to interconnection tracing and program caps – which must be tackled to realize the full potential of community sunshine and ask the resilient, affordable, affordable power communities.”
The acquisition costs of subscribers fell in H1 2025, but the challenges of the LMI market continue to exist
Credit: Ampion
The acquisition costs of the subscribers fell on average by 5% compared to the second half of 2024 in all customer segments. The business demand for community sages remains high, so that the share of the commercial solar energy in the total community capacity of the community drives up to 53%. However, developers and subscription management companies are confronted with increased headwind when subscribing customers with low to moderate income (LMI). Difficult subscriber acquisition dynamics reduced the share in the community of the LMI subscribers to 9%. The customer segment remains the most expensive to subscribe to $ 102/kW compared to $ 72/kW for non-LMI residential customers.
As new community programs for the community have difficulty starting, Community-Sonne developers are increasingly focusing on alternative distributed solar programs such as paths for long-term growth.
“Non-residential distributed solar sun, which usually includes projects that of 2 and 20 MW are sizeDCIs extremely well positioned for growth, “said Connelly.” Utility companies increasingly appreciate the value of sources on the community scale because they can be used quickly, with storage and close to the customer’s tax. “
Cumulative Community -Zonne -installations currently a total of 9.1 GWDC and are expected to exceed more than 16 GWDC By 2030. Wood Mackenzie has developed high and low-bag scenarios to describe market uncertainties:
- High case: an increase of 18% to the five -year outlook due to favorable changes in state policy and efficient reform of interconnection, adding 1.3 GWDC
- Low case: a contraction of 16% due to complex guidelines for tax credit and limited state intervention, reducing the outlook by 1.2 GWDC
News item from Wood Mackenzie
