Chinese PV module prices are expected to hover around $0.12/W in the second half of 2026, as market sentiment remains volatile due to the end of export VAT rebates, high demand and persistent oversupply.
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in early January halted the solar industry’s $7 billion plan to reduce polysilicon overcapacity, a move aimed at easing price pressure across the supply chain. Since then, Chinese authorities have given no indication that the plan will resume, leaving market participants in continued uncertainty.
“SAMR appears to have abandoned efforts to consolidate the polysilicon industry, at least in the short term, and is refraining from supporting industry-led coordination that could be seen as a competitive force,” said Karen Tang, editor-in-chief of Europe at Dow Jones. pv magazine. “Without new consolidation measures, polysilicon prices are likely to lose the upward momentum seen since last July and hover around cash cost or breakeven levels, while excess inventories could further weigh on the market. Concerns about weaker profits and margin pressures could return to the solar value chain. However, if implemented in a disciplined, compliant manner, consolidation and production cuts could help rebalance the market and bring greater price stability to the polysilicon sector to bring.”
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Tang noted that the abolition of China’s 9% VAT rebate on exports will force manufacturers to pass the costs on to buyers or absorb them themselves.
“In reality, it’s probably a combination of both, and we’ve seen the VAT adjustment priced in,” she said. “Since the January announcement, the market reaction has been strongest in front-end trading, with buyers and sellers rushing to secure modules ahead of the April deadline rather than risk a potential price shock afterwards. OPIS FOB China TOPCon spot module prices have risen more than 30% since the start of the year, and the forward curve shows modules offered later in 2026 are priced above prompt levels.”
Tang said she expects prices to remain highly volatile in the first quarter of 2026, with the OPIS FOB China forward curve trading between $0.096/W and $0.125/W in recent weeks. Second quarter supply prices remain broadly at $0.12/W to $0.125/W.
The forward curve indicates marginally higher prices for module loading in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half of the year, a typical pattern during periods of oversupply when the front market trades at a discount to later deliveries.
“Although the abolition of the VAT rebate and higher production costs have pushed prices higher in the short term, downside risks remain,” Tang explained. “China’s domestic installation outlook is sluggish and a significant portion of demand has been pulled into the first quarter of 2026, which could dampen purchasing interest later in the year.”
She added that amid recent volatility, many buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach and remain cautious about entering into deals before the second half of 2026. Manufacturers, meanwhile, are setting different price floors depending on their cost structure and business valuation.
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