In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
China’s TOPCon module prices fell this week after four straight weeks of gains as trading activity declined ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Price adjustments were also driven by expectations of an easing in production costs following a recent decline in silver prices, which have fallen more than 30% since record highs in late January.
The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark rating for TOPCon modules from China, fell 1.68% this week to $0.117/W FOB China, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report published on February 3.
However, the cost relief may prove short-lived. Several manufacturer sources noted that shipping volumes for February and March are largely sold out as buyers looked to purchase ahead of the cancellation of the export tax credit effective April 1. Market participants noted that the elimination of the rebate is expected to increase manufacturers’ costs and provide price support from April.
A top 10 module manufacturer said its production line is already running at full capacity and deliveries have been fully allocated in February. The source added that several leading manufacturers are currently still subject to production and export quotas imposed by regulators.
These production cuts are part of broader supply-side reforms to the industry, with regulators allocating quarterly production quotas to major producers in an effort to curb overcapacity and control aggressive price competition.
Another major manufacturer noted that their March shipping volumes are fully booked, while module business rates are capped due to government-imposed production limits.
Market participants remain wary when it comes to committing deliveries for the second half of 2026. Discussions about module loading in the second half are mostly limited to price guidance and not actual transactions, although some sources believe that downstream prices are unlikely to return to 2025 levels given the prolonged period of higher input costs.
Meanwhile, Chinese TOPCon M10 cell prices were assessed 1.65% higher this week at $0.0556/W FOB China. TOPCon cell prices rose this week on firmer cues as market participants continued to assess the impact of a sharp drop in silver prices since last Friday.
Due to increased volatility in silver markets, several trading sources have taken a wait-and-see approach and opted to reassess the impact on production costs following the Lunar New Year holiday.
A top 10 producer said that while silver prices have fallen, most raw materials have already been secured through futures contracts. Another downstream producer noted that precious metals prices remain difficult to predict amid recent market disruptions, adding that silver is unlikely to retreat to 2025 price levels. While mobile prices may decline, the source expects prices to remain supported longer term.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), persistently high prices of components, especially silver, have kept cell production costs high. Weak foreign module orders have increased uncertainty around wafer and cell production schedules, suppressing near-term purchasing demand.
On the supply side, leading manufacturers have scaled back or halted production, tightening supply in the short term and providing some price support. However, high inventory levels in the sector have not been meaningfully reduced, which continues to weigh on any sustainable price recovery.
Market participants added that many production lines have been closed ahead of the Lunar New Year, limiting short-term price developments. As such, clearer price signals are not expected to emerge until late February.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired price data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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